Fed Shares Space With China Data, BoE, BoJ In New Week

The March FOMC meeting’s obviously the marquee event this week, but the macro docket’s full of notables.

The Bank of England will probably keep rates on hold, so I won’t spend a lot of time previewing the March gathering, but I did want to briefly remind readers that two policymakers voted last month for an upsized 50bps cut versus the quarter-point move the bank actually delivered. That would’ve been newsworthy on its own (in market circles, anyway), but it was even more remarkable for the juxtaposition with the updated inflation outlook, which saw the price growth trajectory revised meaningfully higher.

The UK’s dealing with many of the same problems plaguing the Western world more generally: Sticky underlying inflation, a slowing growth impulse and security threats. London’s arguably better insulated than the rest of Europe from Donald Trump’s ire (Trump seems to harbor an affinity for the Brits that he doesn’t exhibit vis-à-vis some of America’s other traditional allies, London can negotiate its own, bilateral trade deal with Washington and the UK can provide for its own defense), but these remain very trying times for the UK, to put it mildly.

Meanwhile, China will release key activity data covering the holiday period. The figures will come with any number of caveats to account for “distortions,” but investors will be keen on the retail sales readout following Beijing’s latest promise to bolster households’ financial expectations and thereby spending. So far this year, Chinese equities are besting the S&P by a huge margin, and there’s talk of a “Xi put,” an absurd euphemism for the dictator’s penchant for engineering equity market rallies when he needs to shore up sentiment among an oppressed populace.

As the figure shows, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon index is outperforming the S&P by — wait for it — 24ppt so far this year. “Golden age” indeed.

Needless to say, the outlook for the Chinese economy’s still grim, notwithstanding the Party’s pretensions to 5% growth. And Xi, the world’s most famous communist, is the very last person I’d trust to maintain a “put” for the local equity market.

In addition to the Fed and the BoE, there are a number of other central bank meetings this week, most notably the Bank of Japan’s March gathering. They’re on hold, but the drama continues: Japan’s in the process of dismantling modernity’s most ambitious experiment in monetary easing amid what Japanese policymakers now believe is a durable recovery in domestic inflation.

Also on the US schedule this week: Retail sales covering February. That print will be eyed very closely. Consensus expects a 0.6% gain in nominal spending.

If the control group comes in weak, Q1 GDP tracking will take another hit.

The first of this month’s housing releases are due as well, with NAHB (for March) due Monday, starts and permits (covering February) on Tuesday and existing home sales (also for February) on Thursday.


 

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