Liberation!

In the days ahead, traders and investors will gear up for “Liberation Day.”

Never heard of it? Well, it’s new. Like “The Gulf of America.”

If you didn’t know who was president, you might be inclined to think “Liberation Day” refers to a new civil rights commemorative, but this is Donald Trump we’re talking about, Mr. “Bring Back The Death Penalty” for falsely-accused black teenagers, so instead it’s a fatuous honorific for the next tariff deadline.

On April 2, Trump will “liberate” America by forcing US importers (and, eventually, US consumers) to pay a bevy of new taxes on shipments from countries which tax American exports. If “liberation” seems like a misnomer to you in that context, you’re not wrong, but then again, you aren’t rich either, and that’s the crux of the issue.

What Wall Street strategists implicitly promoting Trump’s agenda won’t tell you (in some cases because they voted for him, but in other cases because they’re just too damn ignorant to see it) is that from a near-term, political expediency perspective, the point of Trump’s tariffs isn’t to rebalance global trade and shrink America’s trade deficit, goals which’ll take years or even decades to accomplish if they’re achievable at all, but rather to raise revenue for the extension of tax cuts for the rich and corporations.

The right-most flank of the GOP in 2025’s comprised in part of the most fanatical remnants of the Tea Party, some of whom are committed to fiscal austerity not as a matter of principle, per se, but rather in the same way someone who hangs out at the Bristol Motor Speedway’s committed to Mountain Dew: “Why is this so important to you?” “Nun o’ ur goddamn business, city boy.”

Those people can’t be reasoned with, not even by Trump, so you gotta throw them a pay-for if you want their support for an unfunded anything, even something as inherently “noble” as tax cuts for people and companies who don’t need them. The pay-for right now is tariff revenue, and what’s a tariff? A tax on consumption. And who pays that tax, primarily? Middle- and lower-income families.

So, again, Trump’s raising taxes on the middle-class and on the poor to pay for tax cuts for the rich and for corporations. He wants to get those tax cuts done as soon as possible. If your question about the tariffs is, “What’s the rush?” that’s one answer. (It’s probably the answer.)

Any good libertarian will tell you that taxation’s a form of theft to fund illegitimate income redistribution. In this context, I couldn’t agree more. Trump’s a reverse Robinhood. He’s stealing from everyday people and giving it to the rich. So, to people like his family and Elon Musk and Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick.

Reporting over the weekend suggested that in fact, the April 2 “reciprocal” trade actions will be more targeted than implied by Trump’s wildest bombast, but will nevertheless constitute “a very significant expansion of US tariffs,” as Bloomberg put it, adding that Trump still plans to “announce widespread” levies “on nations or blocs,” with some carveouts for trade partners who don’t run a surplus in their trade relationship with the US or who don’t tax US imports at all.

Trump’s looking for “immediate impact,” the same linked Bloomberg article went on, noting that the new measures will “take effect right away.” Gotta get those tax cuts paid for! Because boy, oh boy are they expensive.

Late last week, the CBO published estimates reflecting the projected costs of extending the 2017 Trump tax breaks. America’s primary deficit over the first decade ending in 2034 would be roughly $4 trillion wider. By 2054, America’s total deficit would be more than 12% of GDP, triple the baseline estimate, and America’s debt-to-GDP ratio would rise to 214% of GDP, a ridiculous 47ppt (!) higher than the same baseline.

Thank God everyday people are dumb enough to believe that slapping a tariff on Mexican raspberries is going to revive the Rust Belt. Otherwise, “liberating” the rich from their tax obligations would be a costly endeavor.


 

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4 thoughts on “Liberation!

    1. Yeah, it’s entirely possible that I’m the only person to have ever worn a CB piece in the state of Tennessee. She only has two physical stockists in the Americas, and one of them’s in Canada, which means you can’t get it in Nashville or Memphis. (They’re good people, btw. Her prices are ~1/3 of the big designer houses and they send you a hand-written little note with your orders.)

  1. You pointed out something I did not know. Tariffs serve a purpose if they offset income tax reductions. That is an idea you disagree with, and whether it is foolish or not, some purpose IS served.

    1. Tariffs are a national sales tax. So if you like the idea of consumers paying for tax cuts for wealthier people and corporations (more buybacks!) you should find tariffs attractive. Sadly, I’ve seen hard numbers which suggest that even 100% tariffs on all products (oil, foodstuffs and medicines included) would not cover the revenue hit from the tax cuts. Damn math.

      There is another inherent problem, if corporate America does respond to tariffs by expanding production, won’t that reduce the take from taxing imports?

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