There’s a fair amount on offer this week in the US macrosphere, including what’ll probably be an uncomfortably warm read on the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation.

Recall that although the last CPI release was favorable, the component-by-component breakdown, as well as the signal from the BLS’s PPI report, suggested upside to the PCE readout due March 28.

Consensus expects 0.3% from the MoM core read, but there’s considerable “round-up” risk, which is to say a 0.4% print isn’t out of the question. Note that the midpoint — i.e., 0.35% — is double the monthly pace consistent with 2% YoY inflation.

In all likelihood, Friday’s core PCE print will be the warmest in 11 months, and could very easily top March 2024’s pace to be the briskest since January of last year. The release will, of course, include a tally of personal spending, both nominal and real, for February.

Recall that Jerome Powell last week played down a multi-decade high on a key measure of longer run inflation expectations among households. The final read on University of Michigan five- to 10-year expectations is due an hour and a half after the core PCE readout this week. There’s some “egg on your face” potential there for Powell, who also reiterated following the March FOMC meeting that it’s too early for the Fed to preempt tariff-related price pressures, unless “preempt” means holding off on further cuts.

Somewhat unfortunately, Powell actually used the word “transitory” last week to describe tariff-related inflation. It’s not that there isn’t a case to be made that tariffs constitute one-off price increases (there’s a good case for that), it’s just that as a description of inflation, “transitory” needs to stay retired. Any other synonym for temporary will work, but not that one. It’s ignominious.

“By characterizing any upward pressure on inflation resulting from tariffs as transitory, Powell closed the door on the potential for a more dramatic response from monetary policymakers,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman wrote. “Moreover, the FOMC has made it clear that its reaction function to sticky inflation (and inflation expectations) is unchanged and involves delaying cuts until inflation subsides and there is further clarity on the trade war.”

As discussed in sarcastically caustic terms earlier Sunday, there’s no “clarity” forthcoming on US trade policy. There are more tariffs coming, though. “Liberation Day” is April 2.

Macro watchers will also get an update on consumer confidence this week from the Conference Board. The headline there’s seen at 93.8, which would count as the worst reading in more than four years.

The figure’s a reminder: Households are anxious. About tariffs. And about a lot of other things besides.

In addition to the PCE release and sentiment readouts, traders and investors will be treated to housing data including updates on the two key national price indexes (FHFA and Case-Shiller are due Tuesday), new home sales (also on Tuesday), pending home sales (Thursday), the final tally of Q4 GDP (Thursday), preliminary PMI data from S&P Global and, notably in the context of GDP tracking, the trade balance.

Across the pond, the UK will release inflation data following a hawkish hold from the BoE last week, and there’s a smattering of lesser releases that may or may not garner a few headlines.

As usual, Trump will dominate the front pages, hopefully not to the (further) detriment of risk sentiment but no promises.