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US Jobless Claims Stay Low During NFP Survey Week
US jobless claims were a nonevent Thursday.
So, why am I wasting my time and, much more importantly
A guess on my part. Businesses were burned post pandemic with difficulty hiring. They are more hesitant to lay off workers than previously. And employees are more hesitant to switch. Turnover is therefore low. So continuing claims are up, but new claims remain low. I would posit this is a razor’s edge equilibrium. Probably echoes the housing market, low quantity demanded and low quantity supplied. Things will probably break out this year. My guess is unemployment rate will eventually rise this year.
It hasn’t hit the data yet. It will. Severance packages delay the trigger for being counted among the unemployed. I know a lot of people in areas of employ that are affected by DOGE, directly or secondarily. Nearly all of their companies are laying off and they are expecting multiple waves once they have a better sense of the loss of funding/business.