Headline US retail sales missed estimates in the first of this week’s notable US macro data, but a key underlying metric was solid pointing, perhaps, to some relief for market participants concerned about growth.
Nominal spending on goods, bad restaurant food and bar tabs rose 0.2% all told in February, Monday’s release showed.
Consensus wanted a much stronger, 0.6% advance. The range of guesses from 64 people who make your local weatherman look like a veritable Nostradamus, was -0.4% to 1%.
January’s already poor showing was revised to show an even bigger decline, at -1.2%.
The ex-autos print, at 0.3%, was in-line, and the good news for markets was the control group, which showed a 1% advance, more than double estimates and ahead of every guess from three-dozen people who drew numbers ranging from -1% to 0.9% from a hat.
Food and drinking places, the only services sector category covered by the release, showed a sharp decline, as expected. Spending on two-for-one appetizers (“Which are your favorites, Jasmine?” “Oh, gosh, I like the southwestern eggrolls, but you can’t go wrong with the fried mozzarella!”) and pre-mixed Margaritas fell 1.5% last month.
I’d be inclined to call this a mixed readout despite the meaningful miss on the headline and more than half the report’s categories showing a drop. Nonstore retail sales were strong and the control group rebound should bolster Q1 GDP tracking. At worst, this was a non-event.



Agree, mixed data on balance, especially with revisions
How rich is the control group? I will bet it is way above average. Who want to ask the bottom 60% of the consumers, who have only 12% of final sales – my interpolition from a chart you ran last month? Let’s face it, those poor underclass members are only buying stale bread.