The data calendar in the US is relatively sparse in the new week, which could
Category: economy
Inflation Is Independent Of Money And Policy, PhDs Remind You
“Inflation, as a phenomenon, is independent of central banks and money. It can easily occur
Americans Fly Blind On Inflation. Unmoved By Bank Drama
If US consumers are worried about banking stress, it’s not showing up in surveyed sentiment,
Ambiguous Retail Sales Suggest American Consumers In Limbo
US retail sales fell more than expected in March, data released on Friday showed, adding
Fed Gets More Disinflation Evidence With Cool PPI, Rising Jobless Claims
In another constructive development for the disinflation narrative in the US, producer prices across the
ECB Notices Greedflation. Albert Edwards Offers Another Warning
Earlier this week, I suggested the purported wage-price spiral which many argue is driving inflation
Fed, Markets Get Good News In Relatively Benign CPI Release
Headline inflation in the US rose less than expected in March, while core price growth
Latent Recession Risk At 50% Underlines ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Worries
Recession risks are elevated. I suppose that goes without saying. If it does go without
IMF Warns On ‘Tricky,’ ‘Uncertain’ World As Risks Proliferate
The IMF’s new World Economic Outlook (that’s a proper noun) is here. Who’s excited? These
US Small Businesses Stare Down Worst Credit Crunch In Decades
America’s small business owners are still “cynical.” That’s according to the latest vintage of the
Forget Bretton Woods 2 And 3. Try ‘Deep Dark Woods’ Instead
If you’ve never been to Asheville, North Carolina, but you’ve heard of it, I’m not
Soft Landing Comes Back Into View Despite Bank Drama
In the latest weekly+, I suggested that, for the first time this cycle, the incoming
Solid Jobs Report Clears Fed For Another Hike
The US added slightly more jobs than expected in March, and the unemployment rate moved
Meanwhile, In Japan…
“Consumer prices aren’t going back to constantly falling below 2%,” Haruhiko Kuroda said Friday, speaking
Recession Stars ‘Already Aligned,’ JPMorgan Says
Don’t lose the plot. And, unfortunately, this plot dead ends in recession. That was one
Jobless Claims Surge On Revisions. Tech Job Cuts Jump 38,487%
Initial US jobless claims printed well above estimates in figures released Thursday. Taken at face
A Tale Of Two Services Surveys
The US services sector put on the brakes last month. Or sped up. It depends
As Hiring Slows, US Jobs Concentrated In Small Firms, Services
US private sector employers added 145,000 jobs in March, ADP said Wednesday. That was well
Soft Landing Hope Floats In Multi-Sigma JOLTS Miss
At long last, US job openings printed a sizable downside surprise versus consensus. Openings as
Manufacturing Contraction — The Good Kind
If you were looking for a dovish macro print to support any “last hike” hopes
With Banks ‘Stable,’ Traders Look To US Jobs Report
With the US banking system in stable condition thanks to a $150 billion per week
No Bank Panic In Michigan Poll. But Recession Vibes Unmistakable
A trio of bank failures had “limited impact on consumer sentiment” this month, Joanne Hsu,
US Inflation, Spending Data Cooperates. For Now
Core inflation using the Fed’s preferred gauge rose less than expected last month from January,
Beware The Latent Surge In Jobless Claims
Just take the money! It’s free! If I were a financial advisor (I’m not), that’s
The ChatGPT Bubble Is Here: $300K For ‘AI Whisperers’
Earlier this week, I lamented the somewhat terrifying prospect of 300 million lost full-time jobs
Did America’s Housing Recession Just End?
For the third straight month, pending home sales in the US surprised to the upside,
America’s Housing Bubble Flies South For The Spring
A government gauge of national home prices in the US unexpectedly rose at the beginning
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