“It’s always a good idea to challenge preconceived notions by delving into the data. Sometimes we find our convictions are strengthened, which gives us the confidence to look through market noise. Occasionally, however, we find an answer other than the one we’re looking for.”
Category: central banks
BofA’s Shocking Admission: Here’s What Saved Us From “The Recession That Wasn’t”
“By nearly every measure – earnings, revenue, spreads, lending conditions and access to capital markets – the macro environment was one that was suggestive of negative GDP growth”…
Here’s How The French Polls Will Influence Central Banks This Week
“Following a “disruptive†election outcome, however, the market may expect a more accommodative tone from the ECB, and the Riksbank is likely to announce an extension of its QE programme that is due to end in June.”
Visual Proof That Central Banks Killed Active Management
“I’ve gone to great lengths to try and disabuse retail of that notion, and not because I want to make people feel stupid. But rather because I want investors to understand that if central banks pull back and markets are allowed to trade in a two-way manner again, suddenly everyone is going to realize they weren’t the gurus they thought they were.”
Chart Of The Day: Central Bank Intervention For Dummies
A “clearly illustrated phenomenon.”
Volatility, A “Tipping Point,” And The Disappearing “QE-Put”
“Why are vols and spreads staying relatively low, despite the rise in policy uncertainty and populism?”
One Word, And One Word Only: “Duration”
When central banks pull the punchbowl away, you’re going to have some problems if you’re caught with your hand in the duration cookie jar.
Trader: You’re “An Emotional Train Wreck” – But Buying-The-Dip Might Help
“Decide questions for yourself like whether global growth is expanding or not? At the end of the day is there likely to be additional or less quantitative easing pumped into the system? Are sovereign wealth funds apt to continue to increase their commitment to global equities or go back to sovereign debt coupon clipping?”
Buy-The-Dip In Danger From “Politicians Who Want To Change The Liberal Order”
“Just as the Federal Reserve is finally taking the plunge, and as a new wave of politicians in the US and Europe look bent on redefining anything from haircuts and dress codes to the pillars of the Western liberal order, any talk of ‘mean reversion’ seems a bit out of sync.”
No More Heroin: Your Visual Guide To The Global Central Bank Exit Plan
A couple of weeks ago, Citi’s Matt King discussed what is perhaps the best reason
Trader Exclaims: “They Are Making This Up As They Go Along!”
“There’s comfort to lazing in the dark, as long as you can ignore the thought of what a sudden bright light might show is making those scratching noises.”
Pray For Poor Data So Janet Yellen Can “Keep This Party Going”
“In our view, for the cycle to last another several years, we want to see more of the same – a continued environment of ‘ok’ growth and low inflation, which allows central banks to keep the party going.”
Central Banks Have “Learned A Lesson”: “Silence Is Golden”
There’s been no shortage of speculation about whether the Fed “got what it wanted” out
A Good News Type Of Day
Well damned if this wasn’t a good news type of day. We’d wager the only people
Behold: The Central Bank Junk Bond Put In All Its Glory
Over the past two months, we’ve warned repeatedly that global asset prices may be set
The First Week Of The Rest Of Your Life
Welcome to the first week of the rest of your life. By now you all
Chart Check: Was $13 Trillion “Peak Negative”?
Earlier today we discovered that while the total stock of negative yielding debt may be
I Told You So: “Handicapping Political Risk” Is The New “Central-Bank Watching”
“Perhaps it’s emblematic of the times: Central-bank watching is passé, while handicapping political risk is en vogue.”
One Trader Doesn’t Get Why You’re So Damn “Punchy” This Morning
” The rest must have done some people good, because the feel of the market is a bit punchy as we start out of the gate. I’ve no strong explanation why”…
Stagflation Cometh?
From the very beginning – that is, from the time Trump was elected – there’s
Chart Check (“This Is What It Takes To Keep Markets Stable”)
I seriously doubt there are too many people out there who aren’t fully aware of the fact that it’s the flow of central bank liquidity that’s kept markets buoyant over the past, oh, I don’t know, let’s call it eight years. But in case you needed a poignant reminder…
Excuse Me, But Your Tails Are Getting Fatter
I talk quite a bit about tail risk. One of the biggest mistakes an investor
Presenting The 3 “Transitions” That Will Shape Markets In 2017
Not everyone likes to talk about (let alone read about) macro. I’ll go out on
2016: The Year In Charts
Well, it’s been an interesting year. What started out as nothing short of a disaster
A “Stimulating” Pocket Guide To Central Bank Largesse
On Friday in “The Ghosts Of Central Banks Past And Future,” I outlined the history
The Ghosts Of Central Banks Past And Future
Well, it’s just about over. The greatest (or worst, depending on how you’re inclined to
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