Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
January Effects
So far, January hasn't been especially kind to previously-buoyant equities.
Global shares are down 1% or so in the new year, and US stocks around the same, which makes sense considering US shares pretty much are the "global" equity market by now.
Of course, it's still early. In the year, obviously, but even in the month. There's plenty of time for January to turn things around, and it's worth noting in that context that this is historically the best mont of the year for flows.
As the figure
Interesting indeed, I wonder why January is like that
I agree, it made me wonder as well. It’s usually due to internal correlations falling during the earning seasons (as returns are more sensitive to results), which causes realised vol to fall at the index level. I wonder how far back he has gone for that analysis.
H-Man, so who owns the $7 trillion on the sidelines? Main street or Wall street?
I own five of it.
As often is the case with market analysis these last few years, we are downplaying Trump – right now he is the whole game. It is him and only him. It is Trump on the other side of the playing board and and us (me) on this side. Trump is actually easier to beat because his Treasury team is so “market-weak” and he has scared many IB and macro thinkers out of very logical thoughts into the corner. If I were working for Morgan Stanley., BofA, or Nomura (and hundreds of ‘less-good”) people I would be scared too, I faced the same stuff in Wall Street and was fired (sent to Oklahoma) for saving the bank from a probable collapse. It is hard to go against a 500 kilo polar bear that wants to kill you – and I am sure he’s just as nice. But damnit, analysts, that is your job.
“But damnit, analysts, that is your job.”
No, that’s not their job, at least at Wall Street firms. Their job is to help the investment banking, wealth management and trading groups drum up business. The few gals and guys who stuck their necks out with negative calls have rarely been rewarded. Even when proven right.
You’ve seen it when you were in the belly of the beast, no?
I’ve never studied this precisely but as a normal punter, if you make tax harvesting adjustments in the last two weeks of the year, you more than likely have some extra cash you want invest top top things up. Since bonds are up and stocks are messy more may be trying trying to foresee the behavior of the markets for a few weeks. This year as we await the edicts of our new dictator, the markets are likely to stay a bit quieter this year.