“This is really just one manifestation of the more earthly, you can’t fight city hall. A twist in a post-vigilante world, which can’t bear not to believe that the authorities will deliver what our financial market investing thesis requires, while at the same time being utterly incompetent.”
Oh, boy. Try to wrap your head around all of this.
“I’m talking about good old fashioned two-way flow and nascent trends galore.”
“We are likely to be nearing a low point for major market bond and equity vol, and if the catalyst is policy it will likely come from positive volatility QE ‘flow effect’ being more powerful than the vol depressant ‘stock effect’.”
“And with CSPP holdings at €116bn and growing, a big ETF at that!”
“In the end, however, there may be no escape for investors”…
Simply put: if the idea is to communicate that the hawkish shift is going to be “coordinated”, market participants aren’t getting the message.
“Investors face a conundrum.”
“Stocks were being pushed higher because everything was so FUBAR’d. Central Bank balance sheet expansion was pushing risk assets higher, and for the longest time, everyone wanted to fade it.”
“The glass half-full approach. But caution, mistrust, the search for competitive advantage or outright blunders by the powers-that-be risk exacting a very steep cost. Unless, of course, all the alleged bubbles people rail about are your bread and butter.”
“The further on we get from the crisis while still operating in a regime characterized by crisis-era policies, the more difficult it becomes for investors to remember a time”…
“Bubbles, bubbles, every where, Nor any one to pop.”
“But I wonder if Ray Dalio’s retirement was equally smart. Could he have timed it perfectly? Did he retire like Michael Jordon after sinking the jump shot in the dying seconds to win the series?”
“This is the second longest stretch of consecutive gains for the MSCI World since its formation in 1969.”
Ok, well it’s Sunday which means, barring Trump wandering into a nuclear war in the next several hours, tomorrow will be Monday. This week they’ll be a lot of talk about…