US retail sales came up short where it counted on a day when Walmart warned
Author: therealheisenberg
Not Out Of The Woods
The 2025 bear market plunge in US equities will be remembered as one the most
Royals Bearing Gifts
America’s would-be king spent Tuesday yukking it up with real royals in Riyadh. On Wednesday,
US Home-Buying Season ‘Stunted’ By Intractable Affordability Crisis
If you’re wondering — or perhaps I should say in case you had any doubts
More Extortion
Earlier this month, when the Taiwan dollar was busy staging a statistically impossible rally, officials
Gold: Overvalued And Overbought?
Gold. Every time I mention it, somebody gets pissed at me. With the possible exception
Remember: It’s Probably A Projection
“You done writing for today?” I was talking with my psychiatrist on Monday. If you’re
It’s Not ‘TDS.’ It’s ‘WTAFITGD’
Tariffs were supposed to be USD bullish, but I was supposed to be a corporate
Core Inflation Comes In Cool Again, As Good News Accumulates
Good news. More of it. Core inflation in the US ran cooler than expected in
The Pros Were ‘Glum.’ Then Geneva Happened
Professional investor sentiment improved this month, and thank goodness for that. Recall that last month’s
To Hell And Back Again?
To hell and back again. That’s one way to describe the last three or so
What The US-China Trade Truce Means For The Fed
What’s the read-through from the US-China trade truce for the Fed? That’s not a straightforward
‘Only Incompetent, Not Totally Insane’
Earlier this month, Marko Kolanovic said the Trump administration’s hopelessly mercurial approach to trade policy
Tell That To Rain Man
Late last week, I wondered if maybe — just maybe — the trade charade was
‘Art Of The Deal’ Strikes Again
Art of the deal! Donald Trump agreed to pause most tariffs on China for 90
‘Great Progress’
US-China trade headlines will undoubtedly dominate the news flow in the days ahead. “GREAT PROGRESS”
Providing For The Public Good
JD Vance and Marco Rubio — it’s probably more accurate to say Marco Rubio and
As Productivity Falters, Economists Ponder A.I. Devil’s Bargain
Before Donald Trump’s trade war gave it the Dusko Markovic shove, AI was the only
Rotation Ongoing
If you’re wondering whether the latest flows data provided more evidence for the US-to-RoW rotation
Why Tariffs Have To Fall
An under-appreciated potential side effect of the Trump administration’s determination to eliminate America’s trade deficit
China’s Export Beat Shows Trump Playing Whac-A-Mole. Again.
China’s export machine was supposed to slow in April, and it did. But not nearly
Debating The Dollar
What’s wrong with the dollar? Notwithstanding a nascent bounce that finds the DXY pushing back
‘Liberation Day’ Piled More Stress On American Families, Fed Survey Shows
The results are in, and the reviews aren’t great. The New York Fed on Thursday
Efficiency Problems
The BLS on Thursday delivered a sobering read on productivity and unit labor costs. Suffice
A Confused, Split BoE Cuts Rates As Trump Touts UK Trade Accord
Only from the Bank of England can you get a hawkish 25bps rate cut accompanied
‘So Much Uncertainty’
“Uncertainty” was the word of the day at Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC meeting press conference, where
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