I hope Jeff Schmid and Beth Hammack have their mortgage paperwork in order.
On Thursday, in the lead-up to Kevin Warsh’s marquee address in Jackson Hole, Schmid and Hammack reiterated their hawkish inclinations in remarks to the mainstream financial media.
Schmid, who doesn’t vote this year but lodged hawkish dissents at 2025’s final two policy meetings, suggested Fed funds might actually be stimulative at current levels.
“I think [we] might be accommodative on the short-end,” he said, during an interview with Bloomberg TV. “We’ve got work to do.”
Twos agree. As the figure shows, two-year yields are still 55bps wide to EFFR. And that’s after retreating 20bps from the local highs.
Hammack, who dissented in favor of a hike last month, went further, telling Steve Liesman on Thursday that the duration of the inflation overshoot calls for higher rates “now.”
“We’ve been in an inflationary situation for more than five years,” she fretted. “I believe now is the time to act.” Suffice to say Beth will be voting for a hike again in September.
The figure above shows you the Chicago Fed’s national financial conditions index. It’s, um, hardly onerous.
“August has seen the Bloomberg FCI measure reach its loosest level since the 1990s and the Chicago Fed’s FCI measure register some of its loosest levels of the past few decades,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen wrote, in a recent note. “By and large, the Fed has the flexibility to keep pressing a hawkish narrative and follow through with a rate hike as long as there isn’t a material deterioration in financial conditions.”
Hammack echoed that on Thursday. “I don’t see any restriction in policy when I look at financial conditions,” she said. Nor, Hammack added, is there any indication from “market participants” that Fed policy settings are curbing animal spirits.
(Paging Bill Pulte.)




If shorter-term rates are too low, doesn’t it help justify Bessent’s Operation Twist here? Perhaps the increased short end issuance will do the dirty work for the Fed?
Anyone looking at indexes, housing, or daily living needs knows prices are waaaaaay out in front of incomes due to loose policy.