The Powell Fed’s in a tough spot. That’s a good early candidate for macro-market understatement
Author: therealheisenberg
Is 20x The New Ceiling For US Equity Multiples?
A little over a month ago, JPMorgan suggested US equity valuations reset structurally higher over
Arresting Developments
Kash Patel’s arresting judges now. So, there’s that. No sense burying the lede. But it’s
Americans’ Inflation Outlook Neared 10% During April Tariff Panic
Donald Trump’s backpedaling on tariffs, and the partial recovery in US financial assets since the
If Everything’s Exempted, Is It Still A Trade War?
As it turns out, the trade war’s a silly charade. Who knew?! On Friday, reports
Alphabet Does Enough
To let some analysts tell it, Alphabet’s virtually uninvestable. Pretty much everything to do with
Who Sold US Stocks?
Who is Colonel Mustard, in the library, with a candlestick? This is Jeopardy, you took
‘Vladimir, STOP!’
“Vladimir, STOP!” So came the manifestly impotent squeal from TruthSocial, where Donald Trump on Thursday
Erstwhile Housing Optimists Warn On Society-Wide Mobility Crisis
So much for that? For a few months, it looked as though the resale US
Long March Versus Tiny Hands
According to China, remarks from Donald Trump and Scott Bessent in recent days about a
Cutting The Tails, Watching The Screens
It’s too stupid, I can’t take it. Or at least not without laughing at something
‘A Nonsensical Place’
Did everyone hear Scott Bessent on Wednesday? I hope so, because the rhetoric from the
Jump In New Home Sales Is Old News As Rates Surge Back To 7%
Tediously bland wooden boxes newly-built atop suburban concrete farms: Get ’em while there’s a glut!
US Economy Seen Succumbing To Stagflation In Lackluster PMIs
Early reads on US business activity for April painted a subdued, stagflationary picture, not surprising
Untethered
Remember when tariff threats were a boon for the dollar, Treasurys were a haven from
‘An Artificial And Unnecessary Crisis’
Donald Trump on Tuesday said he’s never been inclined to fire Jerome Powell. It was
History Shows High Tariffs Pose ‘Extreme Danger’ To Corporate Profits
If there’s a silver lining (there’s not), it’s that US corporate profits are extremely elevated
IMF Laments Highest US Tariffs In 100 Years
The IMF downgraded the US growth outlook on Tuesday. I mention this not because anyone
Stock Market Gives Trump Historic Thumbs Down
I love it. I absolutely love it. Wait, that’s not true. And even if it
‘Sell America’: The New Global Consensus
How quickly things change. In January, “US exceptionalism” was the undisputed macro-market consensus. Fast forward
The Problem With ‘Big Move’ Days
I’ll keep this one short, but I did want to mention April 21’s Wall Street
Foreigners With $26 Trillion Of US Assets Fear ‘Institutional Erosion’
This goes without saying — or at least it should — but valuation effects account
Biggest Loser
Boy, the jokes just write themselves, don’t they? The Dow was down more than 1,000
Damn It Feels Good To Be A Gangster
Well, at least folks have (by and large) stopped dancing around it: We’re in uncharted
Beleaguered Dollar Hit Again On Trump’s Powell Threat
If Donald Trump wanted a weaker dollar, undermining faith in US assets, and particularly threatening
In The Dark Shadow Of A White House
Finance chiefs, central bankers and a veritable who’s who of the macro universe will gather
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