Hopelessly-stretched would-be US homeowners caught a small break over the last week, as financing costs
Author: therealheisenberg
Madman Theory: Redux
A couple of days ago (and on any number of other occasions), I suggested equities
This Time Was Different In At Least One ‘Shocking’ Respect
Earlier this week, in “As Corporate America’s Interest Burden Collapsed, US Government’s Soared,” I took
Where To For Stocks? Ask Bonds
What was the biggest takeaway from last week’s post-US CPI price action? Maybe that’s an
Trump’s Term Premium Problem
2025’s not 2017. The distinction matters for the Trump administration’s domestic policy agenda, and specifically
A Mandate For Cruelty
Donald Trump came into office with a mandate to be cruel towards immigrants, and he
Is Kneecapping China A Good Idea?
At this point, I should probably apologize to Beijing for beating the dead horse that
Trump Inherits Goldilocks US Economy In ‘Sweet Spot’
“There’s a Goldilocks flavor to it.” So said Goldman’s Jan Hatzius in a note published
‘Tariff Man’ Eschews Day One Tariffs
“Tariff Man” isn’t imposing any new tariffs. Yet. Donald Trump won’t slap the world with
As Corporate America’s Interest Burden Collapsed, US Government’s Soared
Much has been made of the C-suite’s falling interest burden, a trend that accelerated in
Will The Mag7 Ever Be ‘Tired Of Winning’?
One of the (precious) few bear cases leveled against America’s mightiest mega-caps says some of
Why Higher Rates Haven’t Hurt Stocks More
If you’re curious, stocks reacted just as they “should’ve” to the selloff at the long-end
Beaten-Down Bonds Tempt With Huge Return Potential
It was a good week for besieged US government debt. Benchmark US yields dropped around
Population Frustration
Demographics: They matter. For all kinds of reasons, not least of which is that if
Great 2020s Bond Bear Makes History
History. You’re witnessing it. You witness history by default, every day, but when we carry
Xi Or Your Lyin’ Eyes?
“Overall, the recovery is tentatively sustained in a still-fragile mode.” So said SocGen’s Wei Yao
CPI Rally Saw ‘Constructive’ Shift In Equities Options
One apple (which in this case means one bad session for Apple) might’ve spoiled the
Avoid The Tails, Stick The Landing
For traders and investors (and yes, those are two distinct classes of market participants), the
Money Trees
Wall Street harvested a bumper crop in Q4. The last of the big American banks
America’s Homebuilders Can’t Shake The Gloom
As you might imagine given the steady rise in rates since October, homebuilder sentiment in
Have Jobs, Will Spend
The last of this week’s top-tier US macro data found retail sales disappointing on the
Chasing The (American) Dream
Lost on Wednesday in a barrage of (for once favorable) inflation headlines and (for once
A Bridge To Nowhere
“The people of Gaza can finally recover and rebuild.” So said Joe Biden on Wednesday,
It Pays To Be A Bank
Banks. It’s good to be one. Quarterly results from a handful of majors on Wednesday
Every Dove Has Its Day
Markets were absolutely enamored with Wednesday’s inflation report out of the US. Bonds were the
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