So far in 2025, the retail crowd’s buying every dip.

That’s according to Goldman’s Scott Rubner who, in what he described as “the last bullish [note] that I will send for Q1 2025” given the proximity of negative seasonals, illustrated a retail buy impulse which, on some metrics, has no precedent.

The figure on the left, below (click to enlarge), shows the daily retail net buy/sell imbalance. It was positive (i.e., net buying) for 22 consecutive sessions headed into CPI this week.

That impulse was especially pronounced on January 3, January 17, February 3 and February 4. The figure on the right gives you some historical context.

That’s “animal spirits” and “YOLO behavior” from a “retail army” that’s “buying any dip,” Rubner said, adding that the “massive numbers” illustrate the January effect. “This cohort,” he went on, “is happy to buy any 2-3% dips for now.”

Meanwhile, the corporate bid’s in play, with most of the C-suite out of the blackout. Goldman expects nearly $1.2 trillion in executions (not just authorizations) this year, which Rubner helpfully noted is $4.64 billion per day on average days,” and as much as $7 billion when the window’s open.

But, as the figure on right right, above, reminds you, the seasonal’s not your friend from here.

“Everyone is in the pool, including retail traders, 401k inflows, start-of-the-year allocations and corporates,” Rubner said. “My highest conviction is that this massive ability to buy dip alpha is starting to wane.”