What’s the read-through from the US-China trade truce for the Fed? That’s not a straightforward
Author: therealheisenberg
‘Only Incompetent, Not Totally Insane’
Earlier this month, Marko Kolanovic said the Trump administration’s hopelessly mercurial approach to trade policy
Tell That To Rain Man
Late last week, I wondered if maybe — just maybe — the trade charade was
‘Art Of The Deal’ Strikes Again
Art of the deal! Donald Trump agreed to pause most tariffs on China for 90
‘Great Progress’
US-China trade headlines will undoubtedly dominate the news flow in the days ahead. “GREAT PROGRESS”
Providing For The Public Good
JD Vance and Marco Rubio — it’s probably more accurate to say Marco Rubio and
As Productivity Falters, Economists Ponder A.I. Devil’s Bargain
Before Donald Trump’s trade war gave it the Dusko Markovic shove, AI was the only
Rotation Ongoing
If you’re wondering whether the latest flows data provided more evidence for the US-to-RoW rotation
Why Tariffs Have To Fall
An under-appreciated potential side effect of the Trump administration’s determination to eliminate America’s trade deficit
China’s Export Beat Shows Trump Playing Whac-A-Mole. Again.
China’s export machine was supposed to slow in April, and it did. But not nearly
Debating The Dollar
What’s wrong with the dollar? Notwithstanding a nascent bounce that finds the DXY pushing back
‘Liberation Day’ Piled More Stress On American Families, Fed Survey Shows
The results are in, and the reviews aren’t great. The New York Fed on Thursday
Efficiency Problems
The BLS on Thursday delivered a sobering read on productivity and unit labor costs. Suffice
A Confused, Split BoE Cuts Rates As Trump Touts UK Trade Accord
Only from the Bank of England can you get a hawkish 25bps rate cut accompanied
‘So Much Uncertainty’
“Uncertainty” was the word of the day at Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC meeting press conference, where
Deep State Holds Rates Steady
The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as expected. There was no drama around the
Who Wants To Live In D.C.?
Mortgage rates in the US were lower over the past week on average. By a
Arguing With A Wall
Maybe I was wrong. That’s happened once or twice. Three times even. Four at most.
‘What To Talk About’
High-stakes negotiations between the world’s two superpowers in Switzerland. Big league drama. Serious faces. Solemn
Captain Capricious And The Taiwan Canary
This week’s Treasury refunding auctions garnered a lot of attention for obvious reasons. The macro-market
Straw Men Versus Barbie Dolls
Donald Trump stumbled into another meme last week when, during a cabinet meeting, he played
Love, Fear And Respect
Calogero: “Is it better to be loved or feared?” Sonny: “That’s a good question. It’s
Waiting On The Robots
It’s important to preface this brief update (500 words counts as “brief” ’round these parts)
Taiwan As The Blueprint
It’d be a mistake, I think, to write off what happened with the Taiwan dollar
Neon Swan: What Just Happened In Taiwan?
If a six-standard-deviation event’s a black swan, what’s a 20-sigma-event? What color swan is that?
US Services Sector Holds Up. But The Storm’s Comin’
Good news, bad news. Which do you want first? I’ll break with precedent and start
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