Do you work for the federal government? From home? And are you less-than-excited about the
Author: therealheisenberg
Who Has The Burden Of Proof, DeepSeek Or US Hyperscalers?
Who shoulders the burden of proof? That’s a key question for investors pondering the prospect
Buying The DeepSeek Dip
I’ve been doing this — and on most days, I’m not even sure what “this”
‘Trump Bump’ MIA In Consumer Confidence Data
Consumer confidence looked a little shaky in second-tier US macro data released on Tuesday. The
Annual Home Price Growth Picks Up First Time In Eight Months
Homes. They’re expensive! Half a million dollars worth of expensive if you want something half-decent
Zuck Dodges AI Selloff On ‘DeepSeek Of The West’ Hype
One of the more interesting aspects of the early-week DeepSeek panic on Wall Street was
Adventures In Bond Land, Annotated
I’ve said it how many times? The rapidity and reason for a given move higher
Little Red Box
“An excellent AI advancement and a perfect example of Test Time Scaling.” That’s DeepSeek, according
Nvidia’s Half-Trillion DeepSeek Crash Says Singularity’s Upon Us
We talk a lot about the “wealth effect” as it relates to the interplay between
AI Paradigm Shift? McElligott Weighs In On DeepSeek Shock
“I’m not gonna try to play semi- / AI- expert here,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said
Will DeepSeek Deep-Six The Mag7?
“More investment does not necessarily lead to more innovation.” The quote’s from quant fund manager
It’s (Still) The Liquidity, Stupid
What’s the difference between explaining something and explaining something away? Not much, in my experience.
What To Expect From The January FOMC Meeting
A pause. I hate to spoil the suspense, and I’m legendary for burying the lede,
US Flaunts Economic Brawn As World Struggles
This’ll be a fairly busy week for traders. In addition to the January FOMC meeting
Stock Bubble Is ‘Self-Fulfilling Catalyst’ For American Exceptionalism
Here’s a chicken-egg quandary for you: Which came first, US macro exceptionalism or US equity
How America’s Housing Crisis Fueled A Boom In Stocks And Crypto
I wrote earlier Friday about US housing. Again. Again squared. Then cubed. The vexing circumstances
In US Housing: The Worst Year Since 1995
Now we’re gettin’ somewhere! Maybe lose the exclamation point, though. Existing home sales in the
Oops! US Services Sector Activity Cools Dramatically
“Output growth slows in January and price pressures rise,” S&P Global said Friday, summarizing what
Japan Beats Deflation. Now What About China?
There’s good news for China: It is possible to exit deflation. It just takes a
Justifying A Bubble
I wrote twice already this week about corporate balance sheets and the accrued blessings of
Donald Trump Has Some Demands
Donald Trump wants lower interest rates, he wants them now and he’s not taking “no”
As Stimulus Rally Slips Away, China Resorts To State-Buying
If you’re new to these pages, you might come away suspecting I’m a China-phobe. I
Overblown Claims
Initial US jobless claims rose a second week, handily topping estimates in the process, according
Spot-Up, Vol-Up And The VIX Squeeze Risk That Just Won’t Die
There’s a “monster vibe shift” afoot across thematic macro trades, where last week’s round of
A ‘Monster Vibe Shift’
Don’t look now, but US equities are within shouting distance of record highs, on track
My Way Or The Hard Way
In 2016, when he was still inclined to interviews with traditional media outlets, Donald Trump
US Home Purchases Fall Through At Record Rate On Cost Burden
Hopelessly-stretched would-be US homeowners caught a small break over the last week, as financing costs
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