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US Job Openings, Hires Rise Despite Macro Angst
There were 7.391 million job openings across the world's largest economy on the last business day of
Another interpretation: the US economy is continuing to experience the +ve effects of massive fiscal stimulus (isn’t that what a budget deficit is?) and the -ve effects (high interest rates) have not yet manifested.
At this point, the -ve effects (I don’t know what that actually means) likely won’t show up. I would not be surprised if the net effect of the high interest rates is actually stimulative for much of the economy since the 10% of households that drive half of consumption in the good old US of A are accruing all that interest. Those folks have long-term debt locked in at very low rates while sitting on cash earning more than what they are paying out in interest on the debt.
JOLTS data is from April, so can’t read much into it. How many businesses were whacking payrolls in the week from Liberation to first TACO – hardly any.
Consumer spending is slowing in 2Q, by various measures. So far, not a dramatic fall, more of an uneven rolling over from strong 1Q levels, bigger in big-ticket purchases, similar across income cohorts. DG just reported its best trade-in activity in 4 years – “trade-in” means middle-income customers starting to shop the dollar store.
https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-may-2025.pdf
H details the various ISM/Market surveys.
S&P 500 estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been declining for some months, again not dramatic but more of a steady erosion.
Maybe the cook has decided to simmer the frog rather than using the immersion blender, but anyway I don’t see signs that the frog is hopping out of the pot.
“Maybe the cook has decided to simmer the frog rather than using the immersion blender, but anyway I don’t see signs that the frog is hopping out of the pot.”
Brillant, JL. You are almost matching our Dear Leader on that one!