The good news about bad data is that if it’s bad enough, it can spell a reprieve for the US long-end, fleeting or not.

That’s what happened mid-week, when a lackluster read on private sector hiring in America and an abrupt plunge on a key measure of services sector demand suggested the world’s largest economy might be losing momentum all of a sudden.

Inauspicious, to be sure, but the underwhelming macro releases triggered a 10bps rally across the Treasury curve. For the beleaguered long bond, it was tied for the best day since late February.

With the exception of the quirky 20-year, the long bond’s the only point on the curve that’s handed investors a loss so far in 2025. With Wednesday’s rally, 30-year yields are within 10bps of where they started the year.

Fiscal concerns and generalized jitters about erratic policymaking at the highest levels of the US government have severed traditional relationships and cross-asset correlations this year. That’s a fancy way of saying there’s no guarantee anymore that longer-end Treasurys will be bid on bad news. The safe-haven appeal’s diminished, or at least in the eyes of some.

So, evidence that Treasurys are still Treasurys, so to speak, was a silver lining on a day when the macro news was suboptimal.

As for the Fed trajectory, markets priced in some odds of a third cut this year.

Although it’s difficult to make out on the chart, at ~58bps, 2025 pricing’s actually as dovish as it’s been since early May.

Much as it pains me to say this, part of Wednesday’s move was attributable to Trump, who offered a concise assessment of the ADP undershoot: “‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE.”

Meanwhile, the BLS snuck in the following bulletin:

Notice of CPI collection reductions

June 4, 2025

BLS is reducing sample in areas across the country. In April, BLS suspended CPI data collection entirely in Lincoln, NE, and Provo, UT. In June, BLS suspended collection entirely in Buffalo, NY.

Sample reduction and collection suspension affect both the commodity and services survey and the housing survey. These actions have minimal impact on the overall all-items CPI-U index, but they may increase the volatility of subnational or item-specific indexes. The number of imputed items and the response rates increased in April due to these actions. BLS makes reductions when current resources can no longer support the collection effort. BLS will continue to evaluate survey operations.

I’ve said from the beginning (i.e., since Inauguration Day) that it’s just a matter of time before the Trump administration, either accidentally or purposefully, undermines the government’s capacity to tally crucial data releases including and especially the inflation numbers. Now here we are.

Speaking of things you’d expect out of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump’s Education Department on Wednesday threatened to pull Columbia’s accreditation, claiming the university exhibited “deliberate indifference towards the harassment of Jewish students.”

So, for everyone who paid for (and may still be paying for) a degree from Columbia, congrats: You might soon have a piece of paper from an unaccredited college. You should’ve been a plumber.