The first of this week’s top-tier US macro data was underwhelming, at best.

No one expected a robust read on manufacturing activity, but the ISM headline failed to match even a subdued consensus.

At 48.5, the readout was the worst since November and undershot economists’ collective estimate by a point.

Meanwhile, the final read on S&P Global’s factory gauge for May was 52, slightly lower than the flash estimate but decent under the circumstances, even as it was inflated by precautionary inventory builds.

The word “tariff” came up nearly two-dozen times in the ISM release. The anecdotes were irritable and — dare I say — accusatory vis-à-vis The White House.

“The administration’s tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of COVID-19,” someone in Electrical Equipment said. A panelist in “Miscellaneous Manufacturing” described just how vexing the operating environment is in 2025. Contingency planning, that person complained, “is hugely distracting” and makes it “very hard to know what plans we should actually implement.”

That’s what the administration’s critics are trying to communicate: This isn’t about politics, or at least it needn’t be. It’s about putting American businesses in a position where it’s impossible to plan ahead. That’s not tenable.

The fact that these frustrations are happening in the manufacturing sector’s a testament to the idea that Trump’s hurting the very people the tariffs are supposed to help.

There was no relief on the prices side. That index printed 69.4 in the ISM release, not materially different from April’s readout.

At the same time, the employment gauge remained mired in the mid-40s. See that chart? It’s a picture of stagflation.

Note that both the new orders and the production gauge remained squarely in contraction territory as well.

In the S&P Global release, Chris Williamson said the decent headline “masks worrying developments under the hood” for US factories. Demand’s a function of “unprecedented” inventory builds, and price hikes “are at their highest since November 2022” due almost entirely to tariffs. “Smaller firms, and those in consumer facing markets,” Williamson went on, “appear worst-hit so far.”

In the ISM anecdotes, a panelist in Chemical Products said almost all suppliers are passing along the tariff costs “at full value.” They view the trade levies as a tax and almost no one’s absorbing “any portion” of the duties.

The most poignant quote came from an ISM panelist in Computer & Electronic Products who said, “Government spending cuts or delays, as well as tariffs, are raising hell.”