Make recessions great again. Sorry. That’s the worst kind of cheap, unimaginative punchline, which is
Author: therealheisenberg
US Macro Outlook Darkens Further As Real Spending Craters, Core Inflation Stuck
“Oh, Ey!” as the Sopranos cast might put it. Real personal spending in the US
Where’s The ‘Trump Put’?!
“Nouveau bulls” are nervous and the S&P’s one meaningful weekly loss away from creating the
The State Of The AI Narrative Post-Earnings
Nvidia suffered a rocky — albeit not exactly disastrous — post-earnings trade on Thursday, when
Tariffs. Again.
Metrics and benchmarks. You need them if you’re going to assess outcomes in the context
Another Bad Omen In Tortured US Housing Market
Bad news. More bad news. More more bad news. Pending home sales in the US
US Jobless Claims Spike Amid DOGE Worries
US jobless claims overshot meaningfully in Thursday’s update, a development which may underscore growing concerns
Nvidia Beats, Guides For More Amid ‘Amazing’ Demand
Records. Lots of them. That’s what Nvidia reported on Wednesday afternoon, following another lackluster session
This Isn’t A Drill Anymore
Late last year, I wrote about “anticipatory obedience” in the context of America’s tech moguls
Art Of The Steal
Congratulations to Donald Trump. He successfully extorted a desperate, war-torn Ukraine for a huge share
New US Home Sales Crash In Latest Data Disappointment
New US home sales plunged in January following back-to-back increases, Wednesday’s sole notable US macro
About Those Leveraged ETFs…
“Gamblers.” That’s how Bloomberg described market participants who avail themselves of leveraged ETFs in a
It’s The Job Losses, Not The Spending Cuts
Benchmark US yields were 4.80% or so on January 13. On Tuesday, following another lackluster
American ‘Golden Age’ Off To Rough Start As Consumer Confidence Plunges
Surprise! Confidence among US consumers fell off the map in February, as rampant policy uncertainty, tariff-related
Maybe Houses Should Be — Gasp! — A Depreciating Asset
The annual pace of US home price growth across 20 large metro areas picked up
Chip Wars Rage
The US is hell-bent on stymieing China’s semiconductor ambitions and thereby impeding one of Xi
0DTEs Have Never Been More Prevalent
Not so long ago, you could scarcely go a day without reading something, somewhere in
Consensus Gone Wrong?
Does the nascent “buy Europe” theme have any staying power? It depends. On whether the
Commencing US Growth Scare
The US macro narrative’s shifting. Fast. As discussed at some length Monday in “Traders Rush
Traders Rush To Hedge Stock Crash Amid ‘Trump 2.0’ Policy Jitters
Market participants are waking up to an uncomfortable reality regarding the near-term domestic macro read-through
Visible Hands
Donald Trump can’t help himself. He has to escalate. I’d call it a compulsion, but
Alice In Deutschland
Hotly-anticipated German election results offered few surprises if the ballot offered any at all. As
Don’t Call It A Ceasefire
I shouldn’t have to say this, but the Kremlin can’t be trusted to honor any
46 Long Months
Is the Fed’s inflation goal actually achievable in the post-pandemic macro reality, defined as it
Duck, Duck, Goose Step
This was “the week that shook Europe,” according to Guardian chief Katharine Viner, who on Saturday
Fed Hit With ‘Anything But That’ Moment In 30-Year High Inflation Expectations
While previewing this week’s sparse US macro releases, I casually noted that the final read
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