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Trump Gets A Win As US Inflation Negligible
Well whaddayaknow, inflation in the US ran meaningfully cooler than expected last month, according t
Pre=release, I noted some talking head economist citing falling airfares as a recessionary indicator. (= consumers tightening their belts and such.) The CPI data may be supportive of that notion?
FULL MAGNETS and now this. It must be an excellent day in the White House
Since Trump came into office for version 2, I’ve always wondered if he’d gut BLS and any other organization that provides us with “data”. For a guy who is lazy and can’t handle the truth, what better way to deal with stubborn facts than to put people in control of them who will “make” them read as he wishes a la Xi. Trump uber alles.
That’s my concern. How certain can we be that pressure from the WH isn’t already forcing data into being positive or less bad
I think BLS employees and ex-employees would be blowing whistles at blatant data manipulation.
My notes – feels not so different from April.
What held CPI down was energy (-3.5% YOY, -2.4% MOM) w/ gasoline -ve hard vs electric/NG +ve signif, and “commodities” i.e. basically consumer goods (+0.3% -0.1%). Energy accel YOY decel MOM. Retailers more discounting, softer demand and “value-focused” consumer behavior, still selling pre-tariff invtry. Also transportation services on MOM basis (+2.8% -1.4%) w/ airline tix -ve a lot.
Food at home (+2.4% +0.5%) accelerated a little from April. Signif increase in meat-fish-poultry-eggs, milk, and [this is the real tragedy] coffee. Fruit and veg -ve. Food away from home (+3.8% +0.4%) similar to last month.
Shelter (+3.9% +0.2%) similar to April. OER (+4.2% +0.4%) ditto.