Wholesale Prices Docile As Tariff Spike Fails To Materialize

Another day, another benign read on a key gauge of US price pressures.

Wholesale prices barely rose in May, the BLS said Thursday, underscoring the message from Wednesday’s favorable CPI release.

The headline PPI gauge advanced 0.1% last month from April following consecutive monthly declines. Consensus expected a 0.2% increase. April’s readout was revised to show a shallower drop (-0.2% from the initially reported -0.5%). On a YoY basis, the headline index rose 2.6%, matching estimates.

The core measure likewise rose 0.1%, and it too undershot the expected advance. Recall that the underlying measure showed a sharp decline in April alongside the services gauge, which fell the most on record, suggesting margin pressure amid dialed-up tariffs.

In Thursday’s release, PPI services ticked up 0.1%. The prior month’s record-setting 0.7% decline was revised to show a 0.4% drop.

A measure of margins received by wholesalers and retailers rose 0.4% on the services side, while prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services declined 0.2%, the BLS said.

On the goods side, prices rose 0.2%, mostly due to underlying (i.e., core) goods. The food index showed a small increase and the energy index was unchanged.

All in all, this was a non-event. And that’s a good thing. So far, there’s little evidence to suggest a tariff-related inflation spike’s imminent.

The PPI gauges economists monitor to get an early read on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric (i.e., core PCE) didn’t appear to send a strong signal either way on Thursday.

As a quick reminder: Starting with the July release, the BLS plans to end calculation and publication of some 350 PPI indexes due to staff shortages from Donald Trump’s efforts to cull the federal bureaucracy.


 

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2 thoughts on “Wholesale Prices Docile As Tariff Spike Fails To Materialize

  1. The trend is ticking warmer even if the level is cool.

    May price index for final demand +ve MOM (+01%) incl for both goods (+0.2%) and services (+0.1%), from April’s -ve (-0.2%) incl less +ve goods (-0.1%) and -ve services 0.4%).

    Tragically, BLS to discont index for “Small arms ammunition manufacturing”.

    Table A, p. 2 and table 2, p 12 here https://www.bls.gov/web/ppi/ppi_dr.pdf

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