Israeli defense minister Israel Katz on Friday said Iran “crossed a red line” when the IRGC fired missiles into Israel following a devastating IDF bombardment which killed Khamenei’s top three generals along with a pair of prominent Iranian nuclear scientists.

You can scarcely help but chuckle. This is the IDF playbook. Deal grievous blows to Iranian assets, embarrass Khamenei in front of the world (and, more importantly, in front of the Iranian people) and then describe any retaliation as an intolerable affront that demands an even more aggressive Israeli military response.

Katz was referring specifically to missiles fired towards populated areas in Israel, including central Tel Aviv. Suffice to say densely populated areas in Gaza and Lebanon are fair game for the IDF, but when someone fires projectiles at Israel’s population centers, that’s a “red line.”

For whatever it’s worth, Iran said it targeted “military centers and air bases” in its first wave of counterattacks. The IRGC claimed a measure of success for the volley, and it did appear as though a handful of projectiles made it through.

News broadcasts and images from the city suggested Iran destroyed buildings and cars in and around Tel Aviv. Dozens of civilians were injured, some badly, others not. Local officials confirmed at least three dead.

Familiar images depicting light trails across the night sky showed the Iron Dome going to work and performing largely as advertised. Iran simply doesn’t have the operational wherewithal, let alone the on-the-ground intelligence they’d need to respond in kind to the losses inflicted by the IDF Friday.

There was no meaningful Hezbollah activity, at least not in this round. The silence from Lebanon was deafening — a testament to the idea that Iran’s most formidable proxy, which just a year ago stood as the most militarily capable non-state actor in the world, is now too weak to lodge a protest against an unprecedented assault on its benefactor. (An official for the group indicated they’d stay out unless provoked. As though the strikes on Iran weren’t a provocation.)

The Pentagon confirmed, initially through unnamed sources who spoke to the press, that American military assets in the region assisted Israel in intercepting the Iranian barrage.

To reiterate: Iran’s all but defenseless here. Khamenei’s at Israel’s mercy, and that’s not an especially safe place to be, particularly for him.

Any additional retaliation from the regime will be treated by the IDF as an excuse to keep up the pressure. If the success of Friday’s strikes across Iran was any indiction, the IRGC’s air defenses aren’t up to the task, which in this cases means woefully (woefully) inadequate.

Meanwhile, the Security Council heard from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel destroyed Iran’s above-ground enrichment facility at Natanz, the IAEA said, adding that although the subterranean corridors were unscathed, power disruptions might’ve damaged the centrifuges.