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The End Of Khamenei?
If anything's clear 20 months on from Hamas's attack on Israel, it's that Iran and its proxies were
Perhaps the most complete analysis I’ve read on this. It’s amazing you worked in finance and not at Langley. Impressive summary.
Agree !
Agree with all of this. What the US commits to in terms of actual military support now is also an important consideration, particularly in terms of neutralizing Fordow.
Houthi Chief of Staff allegedly taken out in Yemen by the Israelis as well.
Is there any chance Russia moves to defend or assist Iran?
Hell no. They couldn’t even marshal enough resources to help Assad defend Damascus from the remnants of the Nusra Front in December. And they’re going to rush into Tehran, in the middle of full-on IDF air campaign or try to patrol those skies? Not a chance.
Plus, Putin’s relationship with Netanyahu isn’t “bad,” per se. It’s not great either and the Kremlin’s undoubtedly displeased by what’s going on, but I’m sure that at some point over the last 48 hours Putin communicated to Khamenei that he’s on his own. There’s nothing Russia can do for him.
Thank you for the response.
ISW has pointed out that Russia hasn’t even been able to replace any of Iran’s air defense assets that were destroyed in October.
Russia has no slack.
So when is the Grand Ayatollah gonna get in his plane and fly to Switzerland where plenty of his money probably is? I can’t imagine he would feel safe in most places in Iran. And now even the airspace is pretty much controlled by IDF so he may not be safe to fly out unless he has a Russian air escort. He will probably surface somewhere outside Iran pretty soon is my guess. Excellent chronicle of the events Mr. H.
Iran is a pretty big place. Without mid-air refueling services from the Americans, Israel can’t reach ~half of the country.
You sure about that? They just blew up a Boeing parked at Mashhad Airport. That’s waayyy over there next to Turkmenistan.
After these last 20 months, I’m no longer confident in any official assessments of what Israel can/can’t do, does/doesn’t have. I mean, everyone understood that taking the gloves off with them is a very, very risky gamble, but I don’t think anyone anticipated just how capable and efficient they’ve proven to be, and also how willing they really are to go it alone if necessary.
Is there any chance that our assessments of Iran’s ability to create mayhem is also being downplayed too much?
For one: after 9/11 populist media (NY Post & such) loved to remind us of the threat posed by “dirty bombs” which do not require a a missile to deliver. We haven’t been treated to that chatter for a while – has that threat been negated?
Or even in the Straits of Hormuz where past history suggests can be disrupted by underwater mines. Just disrupted, not blocked. But both would require a similarly massive naval response, further stretching our already depleted global military resources.
Hot damn.
According to Google, that’s 461 miles East of Tehran.
Times of Israel: “The IDF confirms the Israeli Air Force bombed an Iranian refueling plane at Mashhad Airport in northeast Iran, some 2,300 kilometers from Israel, marking the most distant strike since the beginning of the operation… The strike on Mashhad Airport potentially marks the Israeli Air Force’s farthest-ever strike. In 1985, the IAF struck the headquarters of the Palestine Liberation Organization in Tunisia, also over 2,000 kilometers from Israel.”
From The Aviationist: “Though it cannot be completely confirmed, the image used alongside the official Israeli report depicts an F-16I ‘Sufa’, suggesting this aircraft type might have been the one used for the raid. The F-16I is fitted with conformal fuel tanks, but in this image the aircraft is also seen equipped with external drop tanks. Aerial refueling would likely still be necessary at some stage, but this loadout would offer exceptional range performance that could facilitate such a deep strike.”
It seems that, much like wagers with Bricktop’s bookies, all bets are off.
Unlike Soleimani, Khmanei’s shoes aren’t that big. And, since he’s 86, there’s surely another ayatollah waiting in the wings (if not, Khamenei’s been grossly derelict).
Have you seen the images from Tehran today? The exploding gas depots and all that? It doesn’t look, to this observer anyway, like Israel intends to let this regime carry on at all.
It’s even worse now. But Israel would be downright stupid to leave Iran in anarchy. Many of those Iranians will be motivated Israel haters, and if we try to clean up the mess, US haters.
H; facts relay news
Understanding human drama and ambitions along with the facts makes a great story.
This was great story telling,
Thank you
Sadly our dear ally Ahmed Chalabi is no longer able to help the GOP guide us through this complex crisis. It’s very sad.
I’ll pile on wih another “nicely done” on your analysis.
Very insightful. Thank you for your analysis.
End the regime. Let Isreal bring peace to that place for 10 years.
I doubt there’s any support for the Islamic Republic among many, if any, readers here, but “ending regimes” doesn’t usually bring peace, just chaos and unforeseen consequences (remember ISIS). And I don’t see Israel or the Trump Administration, or frankly any American administration, putting in the resources to help rebuild the Iranian state.
Iran is a bit different from some other cases we’ve seen during the 00s and 10s. The majority of Iranians don’t want this regime and definitely not another crazy theocracy to follow it. They would have revolted already if it wasn’t through extremely repressive violence – e.g. security forces shooting little girls in the streets and in the prisons raping them has been commonplace. Iranians will do just fine without US assistance once the regime is gone.
H-Man, could be the end for the K man but then what? The country oil troopers (you know the suspects) all toe the line, maybe Iran joins the oil troopers. That leaves Lebanon, Syria and Iraq leading the charge. Not much there, head to Yemen for the Houthi revival, not much there since the deal was cut: don’t bomb ships, we don’t bomb you. Gaza, well Iran take a look at Gaza and ask if that is worth repeating?
Is that the answer?
Reading your analysis alongside the Sunday newspapers, I now feel like the newspapers are like a mushed up gerber baby food, made to be palatable to a child, whereas yours is adult food.
( I’m dieting so food is on my brain)
Great work H , appreciate your insights as always
Great analogy. I have been trying to expand my reading of various news sources to flesh out my understanding of the issues and avoid single-source bias, but there is really no comparison to Heisenberg.
Very impressive analysis and summary of the state of affairs in Iran and its proxies.
Who is likely to lead Iran if, in fact, there is a regime change from Khamenei?
Is it possible that Reza Pahlavi (the son of the Shah) would rise to the top? His family was exiled in 1979.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reza_Pahlavi,_Crown_Prince_of_Iran
I’m no expert, but I can’t imagine any demand for the Pahlavis from the street. They were brutal bloodsuckers and there’s no reason to expect otherwise from BabyShah. Expect a period of chaos followed by a secular strong man.
On the other hand, look who’s in Malacañang Palace.
That would be the rough equivalent of the Russians bringing back the actual czars after the fall of the USSR. Everyday Russians may not have liked their Communist system, but nobody was looking to former czarist Russia for leadership of the country.
I get it was over 45 years ago and the Islamic Republic has been on the Axis of Evil spectrum since 1979, but I’m not sure people recall how deeply, deeply unpopular the last shah of Iran was.
A truly excellent analysis, though you mention conflicting accounts of what Yahya Sinwar was expecting after the October 7 attacks. I’ve always felt that Hamas launched the attacks because they feared the possibility of detente between Israel and at least some of the Arab world. Were that to happen, Hamas’s relevance (and its power base) would be greatly diminished. This is the reason the attacks were especially brutal — they were inviting an equally brutal response from Israel. So brutal that no Arab nation would have considered any sort of detente with the Jewish state afterwards.
Sinwar’s miscalculation was apparently expecting that, once the body count rose high enough, the US would step in and try to broker some sort of cease-fire that would allow Hamas, though battered, to stay in place. He also, as you pointed out, miscalculated the commitment of Iran and Hezbollah to Hamas’s insanely cynical gambit. All this at the cost, of course, of thousands of Palestinian lives.
And, it would seem, at the cost of Nasrallah’s life and potentially Khamenei’s, as you also point out. Iran’s and Hezbollah’s lack of support for Hamas made the weakness of their position painfully obvious and Netanyahu was happy to take full advantage.
Though how this will all end, is anyone’s guess right now.
What are the chances at this point that Syria, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran will recognize Israel? Are the current hostilities making this a less or more possible outcome? For Iran, it would obviously take a regime change, but what about the remaining Arab nations?