Three-Day Week

This is effectively a three-day business week in the US. And it's summer (not officially just yet, b

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2 thoughts on “Three-Day Week”

I think the Israel-Iran war is not only tangential to corporate profits, but a geopolitical risk reducing event, hence the meh market reaction.

For the lifetimes of most market participants, the military threat of a heavily armed Iran and another Arab-Israeli war has been the enduring risk in the Middle East. Now that war is here, and when it is over Iran won’t be a significant military power, for a generation. No-one will come to Iran’s aid, Saudi are probably quietly pleased if not complicit.

If Iran’s oil is off the market for the foreseeable future and crude settles at $70-80 given plenty of excess capacity and Brazil production set to rise, plenty of investors would be fine with that.

If Iran dissolves into chaos and terrorism, investors won’t care – until the next 9/11, but who knows when that will be, anyway beyond the “investment horizons” of the shrinking minority of market participants who even have such a thing anymore.

If Iran tries to strike Saudi oil facilities – well that will discomfit most investors (and delight a few) but you have to think US/Saudi air defenses are on high alert.

I’m reading opinion pieces about how this makes Iran even more dangerous because it will now go full speed to develop a nuclear weapon. I think that’s possibly right, but again beyond investment horizons.

It is funny to watch Trump keep up the bluster-beseech about “c’mon Iran make a deal before it’s too late”. He wants so much to be in the driver’s seat, even if he doesn’t know how to drive.

Wonder how China will replace its oil imports from Iran. Silver lining for Putin, and anyway when did Iran ever send him weapons and men, like his new BFF North Korea?