If you make $100,000 or more, can scrape together a respectable downpayment and your credit score’s 750 or better, go get yourself a house. It’s a buyer’s market. Or it will be soon.

I realize that’s accidentally insulting to a lot of Americans, and on a lot of levels. It shouldn’t be the case you need a six-figure income, $75,000 in cold, hard cash and a top-tier credit score just to realize the dream of home-ownership. Alas, that’s where we are.

Your local mortgage banker/broker might quibble, but I can assure you that if you can’t check the above-mentioned boxes, the boxes you’ll be qualified to shop for aren’t going to be the sort you want to live in, let alone want your family to live in.

Anyway, the good news is that sellers now outnumber buyers by a massive margin.

As the figure above shows, there were nearly half a million more sellers than buyers in the market on the last day of April.

That’s the most in Redfin data going back well more than a decade, and eventually, it’ll lead to price breaks. Or at least it will if those sellers actually want to sell.

Naturally, people marketing their homes are loath to admit they missed the top. “A lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall,” Redfin economist Asad Khan remarked, adding that eventually, they’ll have to come around.

In the same linked piece, Lily Katz was direct. “Time is not on your side,” she told sellers, noting that “stale inventory is piling up in part because many sellers [are] using sky-high comps from the recent seller’s market that aren’t realistic today.”

It’s important, I think, to consider the composition of the buyer pool. I’ve been over this a dozen times if I’ve been over it once. Anyone who could afford to buy a home they actually wanted with mortgage rates at 7% probably already bought. What’s left on the demand side are highly price-sensitive buyers and buyers who’ve reluctantly started shopping for houses they’d rather not live in, but would take if the price is right.

Wednesday’s MBA update showed rates moved a bit lower over the past week, but 6.92% for the average 30-year fixed still seems very high for anyone too young to remember the pre-GFC era. A separate Redfin notice put the median monthly mortgage payment at $2,860 as of late last month, up almost 4% from the same period a year ago, and just a few bucks off the record.

With the long-end of the Treasury curve beset by deficit concerns and with the term premium at risk of additional widening on broader worries about America’s national trajectory, meaningful rate relief might not be forthcoming.

In this environment, there’ll come a point when listing agents have difficult discussions with clients. In one of my neighborhoods, for example, there’s a reasonably new, ~3,000 sq ft, all red brick home with a fenced-in back yard, a two-car garage, decent landscaping and a front porch with two ceiling fans and very nice white railing which, when contrasted with the red brick, virtually screams “timeless!” It’d be a dream home for a young couple with two kids, but the damn thing’s been sitting on the market for months, and there’s no mystery as to why: The sellers are asking too much.

That property’s listed for more than my property two streets over, and without wanting to be an asshole about it, the two aren’t comparable. In no world is that home worth more than mine, and yet there it is, listed as though it were. (It probably doesn’t help that the listing agent’s a cornball who over-gels his hair and wears his button-ups with the top two buttons undone like he’s Robert Pattinson or something, but I digress.)

I imagine that’s happening all over the country, and it isn’t sustainable. Remember: Listing agents need to get paid, and if they think client obduracy is the only thing standing between them and their commissions, they’ll start nudging their clients to lower their prices.

Earlier this week, Redfin’s Dana Anderson tallied nearly $700 billion of unsold housing inventory in America. That’s the most ever, and $330 billion of it’s been on the market for 60 days or longer. As one Denver-based agent told Anderson,”A huge pop of listings hit the market at the start of spring, and there weren’t enough buyers to go around.”