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Slower Hiring And Layoff Notices: Welcome To The Golden Age!
Death by a thousand second-tier macro reports.
On the heels of a very poor ISM services release and
The trend is pretty clear. How fast? How far? Layoffs do tend to snowball though. Without clear policies out of Washington, things won’t improve. The BBB looks like it is trouble. Monetary policy on hold. Tariffs depend on the whim of a toddler.
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly.”
That is the setup for the US economy under Trump.
BLS jobs data reported each month effectively reports jobs extant at the start of the previous month, for businesses on a biweekly payroll. In times of inflection, that data lag is significant. Not for nuthin’ is employment a lagging indicator.
The temp workers category in the monthly NFP data is something I long focused on as a leading indicator within the dataset.
Also RHI etc.
Yeah, but the racism factory is hiring like gangbusters.