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The ‘Less-Bad’ Thesis For Stocks Ahead Of ‘Liberation Day’
Could "Liberation Day" be a buy-the-news event for equities?
If you know markets, you're aware of t
From what I’m reading, the tariff uncertainty will be even higher come April 2.
Imported auto “levies” now threatened. “Reciprocal” tariffs a case-by-case thing, maybe a country gets “a break”, maybe not, maybe the break vanishes. Semi, lumber, pharma tariffs promised. And what’s this talk of a $1-3MM “levy” (is that the new word they learned?) per ship docking at US ports? And a blanket 25% tariff on everything from any country that buys Venezuelan oil? VAT tariffs still in the mix?
So, a version of the chaotic day-to-day changing uncertainty that Canada and Mexico have, but now globally.
No, the tariff uncertainty is not getting any better come April. We’re in a rally window now.
The largest buyer of Venezuelean oil is the US, but Trump may give it an exemption.
Don’t forget about policy volatility’s ugly brother — policy ambiguity — which I believe is also intentional to allow our mercurial Golf Champion maximum optionality. But even in the absence of new announcements or changes, there are still a lot of people wondering how much any of this (not just tariffs) might affect them and just what response might be warranted when they can’t see around the curve, of if there even is a curve anymore.
When in doubt, best to say something nice and see if the Presidential Library could use some walking around money.
Trump is mostly flavor of the day except when it comes to being vindictive. He’s certainly mercurial. Trump 1.0 was letting a 240 lb toddler think he was running the show while a group of adults cleaned up the messes. This time around the semi responsible adults have been replaced by opportunists who mostly lack the requisite training, experience and character required. Just look at the Houthi attack plan fiasco. None of the top 5 officials responsible for the nations security had a clue their communication method was absurd and dangerous. How in the heck are the Gang That Can’t Think Straight going to be able to create a relatively stable economy. We are in a push pull situation at least as long as Baby Huey sits on the thrown. For me there’s a lot more downside risk than upside. If your betting heavy, better stay ultra nimble.