Be careful, David! Donald Trump wants to keep morale up, and you’re not helping. For
Author: therealheisenberg
Beginnings And Endings
Way back two months ago, I posed a question: “How ironic would it be if
US Jobs Report, ‘Liberation Day’ Loom With Traders On Edge
It’s jobs week in the US, and hiring probably held up in March. That’s the
People Are Starting To Notice…
They’re starting to notice. Markets. Economists. Wall Street “strategists.” The financial media. Officials responsible for
A Familiar Chart, A US Stock Exodus And A BIG Idea
I’ll let you in on a little secret: No one in this industry has anything
Household Mood In America Goes From Bad To ‘FML’
It’d be hard to conjure a worse inflation expectations-sentiment conjuncture than that on display earlier
What If Trump Cuts The Swap Lines?
In the editorial accompanying the March 27 Daily, I highlighted a media report which suggested
Fed Ponders Stagflation In Ugly Price, Spending Release
While previewing this week’s marquee US macro release, I noted that although the official consensus
Who’s Really Ready For A De-Globalized World?
Virtue signaling. I hear it a lot from some corners of Wall Street these days
‘Greedflation’ Lives On
If you’re wondering, corporate profits are still elevated. The legacy of so-called “greedflation” lives on.
Trust Issues
I was listening earlier this week to an episode of Bloomberg’s “Odd Lots” podcast. The
Contract Signings Limp Higher As US Housing Payments Hit New Record
If you’re the glass half-full type, you might say contract activity in America’s tortured housing
More ‘Correction Reflections’
If you’re immersed in the market narrative — and you are, otherwise you wouldn’t be
Tax The Cars!
Damn you “Tariff Man!” I’m laughing. It’s not funny, but then again it really is.
Trade Reciprocity Would Be ‘Very Tough For People’
“I’ll probably be more lenient than reciprocal,” Donald Trump said, during an interview with Newsmax.
S&P Could Crash 30% In Tariff Worst-Case, One Bank Warns
Count Barclays among major banks concerned about the read-through for equities of tariff uncertainty and
Bank Of England Still Has A Services Inflation Problem
Good news, albeit news no one cares about. Sorry, that’s insensitive. People in the UK
Are Record Stock Allocations A Canary?
Are elevated household stock “allocations” a canary? I put “allocations” in scare quotes because there’s
Affordability Bedevils US Housing As GenZ, Millennials Struggle
New home sales rose less than expected in the US last month, a so-so read
Americans’ Outlook For US Economy Plunges To 12-Year Low
Bad news: Consumer confidence in America deteriorated more than expected in March, according to Tuesday’s
April’s Fools
Whose put’s struck lower? Jerome Powell’s or Donald Trump’s? Opinions vary. Last week, JPMorgan wrote
‘Currently Clean On OPSEC’
On Monday, the Trump administration stumbled into a truly unfortunate PR debacle described by some
Bear Market In Melt-Up Bets Points To Rally Pain Trade
What’s the “pain trade” in US assets going forward? If you read “The ‘Less-Bad’ Thesis
The ‘Less-Bad’ Thesis For Stocks Ahead Of ‘Liberation Day’
Could “Liberation Day” be a buy-the-news event for equities? If you know markets, you’re aware
Petitio Principii: GOP Goes ‘Nihilistic’ To Extend Trump Tax Cuts
When it comes to the myriad, glaring absurdities hiding in plain sight amongst the grotesque
US Services Activity Recovered This Month. The Good News Stops There
There was incrementally positive news on the US macro front Monday, when preliminary PMI readouts
‘Trump Put’ May Be Struck As Low As SPX 5200
Investors bought the dip in US equities to the tune of $34 billion, but maybe
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