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Author: therealheisenberg

Meta Beats, Delivers Impressive Guide As Mega-Tech Defies Gloom

April 26, 2023April 27, 2023

Meta returned to top-line growth in Q1, results released after the bell on Wednesday showed.

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1 Comment on Meta Beats, Delivers Impressive Guide As Mega-Tech Defies Gloom

Who’s Gonna Buy Stocks Now?

April 26, 2023May 2, 2023

Where’s the demand supposed to come from? From a stylized perspective, stocks are subject to

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America Now A 5% Inflation Country, Summers Says

April 26, 2023April 26, 2023

I’ve said it over and over again, and it’s not an especially popular talking point

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2 Comments on America Now A 52 Inflation Country, Summers Says

‘A Long And Meaningful Phone Call’

April 26, 2023July 24, 2023

For the first time since Russia invaded its neighbor, Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to Xi Jinping.

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1 Comment on ‘A Long And Meaningful Phone Call’

‘Things Have Changed’: Quants Could Sell $276 Billion In ‘Down Big’ Tape

April 26, 2023July 24, 2023

The systematic crowd has done all it can. The burden of sustaining the equity rally

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5 Comments on ‘Things Have Changed’: Quants Could Sell $276 Billion In ‘Down Big’ Tape

Microsoft, Alphabet Top Forecasts With Cloud, AI In Focus

April 25, 2023April 26, 2023

Both Microsoft and Alphabet remain going concerns, according to the first of this season’s quarterly

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3 Comments on Microsoft, Alphabet Top Forecasts With Cloud, AI In Focus

McElligott Flags Risk Of ‘Accident’ In 0DTE Behavioral Shift

April 25, 2023April 25, 2023

Short vol strategies have been profitable lately. “Grotesquely” so, in fact. The colorful description comes

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The Recession That Never Came

April 25, 2023April 26, 2023

Another day, another reminder that a US recession is just around the corner. Allegedly. I’m

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4 Comments on The Recession That Never Came

4 Reasons One Bear Hasn’t Turned Bullish

April 25, 2023April 25, 2023

For quite some time now, one bank’s leading earnings indicators have tipped a marked deceleration

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New US Home Sales Surge. Average Prices Jump Back Near Record

April 25, 2023April 26, 2023

New home sales in the US soared almost 10% last month, as lower mortgage rates

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1 Comment on New US Home Sales Surge. Average Prices Jump Back Near Record

Surprise! US Home Prices Are Rising Again

April 25, 2023April 25, 2023

US home prices unexpectedly rose in February, backward-looking data released on Tuesday showed. I’m not

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2 Comments on Surprise! US Home Prices Are Rising Again

Americans Condemn Themselves To Election Rematch They Don’t Want

April 25, 2023April 26, 2023

In an NBC News poll released last week, 70% said Joe Biden shouldn’t seek reelection.

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10 Comments on Americans Condemn Themselves To Election Rematch They Don’t Want

Kolanovic, McElligott Weigh In On Collapsed Stock Volatility

April 24, 2023July 24, 2023

The market is “dominated by option sellers.” That’s according to JPMorgan analysts led by Marko

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2 Comments on Kolanovic, McElligott Weigh In On Collapsed Stock Volatility

Are Good Earnings Bad News In 2023?

April 24, 2023April 25, 2023

Do we even want a good reporting season from corporate America? Arguably not. Or at

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US Equities Vol Regime Undergoes ‘Polar Opposite’ Shift

April 24, 2023April 24, 2023

You’ve heard it again and again: You only need downside protection if you have exposure

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Rate Cuts? Maybe. Easing Cycle? No.

April 24, 2023April 24, 2023

“This time” is famously “never different,” but this cycle certainly is. It’s been a generation

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Misplaced Optimism, False Fed Optic, Liquidity Blamed For Sturdy Stocks

April 24, 2023April 25, 2023

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson still thinks earnings estimates are too optimistic. He’s also convinced that equities

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1 Comment on Misplaced Optimism, False Fed Optic, Liquidity Blamed For Sturdy Stocks

Credit Suisse Had A Bad Quarter

April 24, 2023April 25, 2023

Credit Suisse released Q1 results on Monday. They weren’t great. I suppose you could say

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Understanding The Valuation-Rates-Macro Nexus

April 23, 2023April 24, 2023

If last year’s cross-asset malaise taught us anything, it’s that no correlation, no matter how

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4 Comments on Understanding The Valuation-Rates-Macro Nexus

Macron’s China Strategy Backfires As Diplomat Infuriates Baltics

April 23, 2023April 23, 2023

“It is strange to hear an absurd version of the ‘history of Crimea’ from a

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3 Comments on Macron’s China Strategy Backfires As Diplomat Infuriates Baltics

If SVB Was A ‘Crisis,’ Six-Month Rate Cut Odds Are 70%

April 23, 2023April 23, 2023

Last week, during a Bloomberg forum, Brian Moynihan suggested the media and market participants might

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4 Comments on If SVB Was A ‘Crisis,’ Six-Month Rate Cut Odds Are 704

A Fragile Equilibrium Meets Key Data As Traders Await Fed

April 23, 2023April 27, 2023

Fed officials will be in their pre-meeting communications moratorium this week, which is just as

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1 Comment on A Fragile Equilibrium Meets Key Data As Traders Await Fed

Reinventing Wheels

April 23, 2023December 30, 2024

“Is that ready?” It was 4:45 AM, or thereabouts. Kazakhstan had floated the tenge, and

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9 Comments on Reinventing Wheels

Another De-Dollarization Reality Check

April 22, 2023April 24, 2023

It’s not just your imagination, even if the narrative is (mostly) imaginary: De-dollarization is a

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9 Comments on Another De-Dollarization Reality Check

D.C. ‘X-Date’ Debate Heats Up Amid Lackluster Tax Receipts

April 22, 2023April 24, 2023

When will the US default? Never. Or at least not in the way that everyone

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2 Comments on D.C. ‘X-Date’ Debate Heats Up Amid Lackluster Tax Receipts

High Profits, Hibernating Fear

April 21, 2023April 21, 2023

Earlier this week, I talked a bit about the “too low” VIX. It’s a familiar

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Breaking The Weak To Brake Inflation

April 21, 2023July 1, 2025

It’s fine unless you need new financing. That applies in a lot of contexts right

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2 Comments on Breaking The Weak To Brake Inflation

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