Is the obsession over the Fed’s dot plot refresh this week overdone? Yes. Surely. Because
Author: therealheisenberg
Kolanovic Warns On ‘Straight Line’ Risk Rally
If you’re curious, JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic still harbors reservations about the risk-asset rally. “Global equities
US Home Construction Rebounds Amid Builder Mood Inflection
Tuesday brought good news on the housing supply front in the US, where a structural
Risk Appetite Highest Since ‘Everything Bubble,’ Key Poll Shows
One of 2024’s defining characteristics so far is a discernible similarity between the market environment
History Made As Japan Hikes Rates, Drops YCC, Ends ETF-Buying
Remember this day. March 19, 2024, will be enshrined in the annals of monetary policy
In Rates, An Eerie Calm?
In the context of this week’s event risk, it’s worth taking a moment to highlight
Trump Has A Fed Chair Shortlist
Satire died an agonizing death during the Trump presidency. At least it was quick. Caricature
Why One Bank No Longer Favors US Stocks Over European Shares
JPMorgan’s “neutralizing” US equities. I’ve never seen the action verb form of “neutral” used quite
Stock Bear Has Bonds On His Mind
Mike Wilson’s an equities guy, but he has bonds on his mind this week. As
US Builder Confidence Breaches Key Threshold In Still Distorted Market
For the first time since a brutal three-month Treasury selloff drove mortgage rates near 8%,
Does China’s Monthly Macro Data Still Matter?
There’s something odd about suggesting that top-tier macro data out of the world’s second-largest economy
Do Not Congratulate
“DO NOT CONGRATULATE.” That was the explicit, all-caps advice Donald Trump received from his national
Traders Eye Bank Of Japan Decision For Watershed Rate Hike
The Fed won’t be the only game in town this week. In addition to the
What To Expect From The March FOMC Meeting
As a practical matter, it doesn’t make much difference whether the Fed tips two or
Inside The Bubble
I don’t want to suggest Wall Street strategists are engaged in an effort to “explain
US Stock Funds Shatter Inflow Record In Latest Mania Marker
Blow-off top, blow-off equity flows? That’s one interpretation of the latest fund flows update, which
American Consumers Unsure What’s Next
The preliminary read on US consumer sentiment in March was mercifully uneventful on Friday. I
BofA’s Hartnett Sees Goldilocks Economy Morphing Into Stagflation
The macro narrative’s taking an unfavorable turn. So said BofA’s Michael Hartnett in the latest
Money Market Fund AUM Soars. BTFP Usage Jumps In Last-Gasp
Another week, another sizable inflow to money market funds. And another new AUM record. Money
Are Investors Ditching Gold To Buy Bitcoin?
Gold recently hit a record high. So did Bitcoin. Which to own? Decisions, decisions. One’s
Why Stocks No Longer Care How Many Times The Fed Cuts Rates
Of all the purportedly puzzling dynamics bedeviling market participants in their belabored efforts to makes
Hot Producer Prices, Cool Retail Sales Send Fed Mixed Message
Producer price inflation across the world’s largest economy overshot and US retail sales came in
Yellen, Neutral, MicroStrategy And Bitcoin
Janet Yellen said something interesting this week. “It seems unlikely that yields are going to
Wall Street’s Biggest Bull Shines Spotlight On AI ‘Virtuous Cycle’
In the course of doubling and tripling down on what counts as the most bullish
Twinkle, Twinkle Little Stars
Is monetary policy in the US (or in any other major, advanced economy for that
There’s A Bear In The Office
“So, welcome aboard! Oh, and by the way: You’re not going to convince Albert. Don’t
Corporate Debt Boom Blows Up Another Bear Narrative
Remember the maturity wall panic? That was another bear narrative popularized in 2022 and 2023.
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