The preliminary read on US consumer sentiment in March was mercifully uneventful on Friday.

I say “mercifully” because we’re teetering on the edge of a market mood shift, I think, after consecutive warm reads on inflation and a lackluster retail sales report.

For now, investors are content to persist in the notion (or maybe it’s a fantasy) that the macro balance remains favorable — that “soft landing” and “Goldilocks” are still the base case. But as BofA’s Michael Hartnett pointed out in his latest, recent data looks decidedly like mild stagflation. Further evidence to suggest consumer moods are flagging or that inflation expectations are rising anew risks undercutting the risk rally. (Heaven forbid, I know.)

With that in mind, University of Michigan sentiment printed 76.5 in the early read for March. That was slightly below the 77 consensus, but not enough to move any needles.

Recall that the final read on sentiment in February was revised sharply lower, and by “sharply” I mean the downward revision was the largest since March of 2020, when the pandemic upended human existence. That turned an uptick into a downtick, which means March’s slight decline counts as a second consecutive drop. The current conditions measure was unchanged. The expectations gauge slipped.

“Small improvements in personal finances were offset by modest declines in expectations for business conditions,” survey director Joanne Hsu said Friday. “After strong gains between November 2023 and January 2024, consumer views have stabilized into a holding pattern; consumers perceived few signals that the economy is currently improving or deteriorating.”

In other words, consumers are in the same boat as economists, Wall Street strategists and traders: Unsure what to make of an environment defined by ambiguity.

Inflation expectations were unchanged at both horizons. Consumers’ year ahead and longer run outlooks for price growth are 3% and 2.9%, respectively.

The simple figure above suggests incremental disinflation progress is, and may continue to be, hard to come by.

Recall that medium- and longer-term expectations moved higher in the February vintage of the New York Fed’s consumer poll, released earlier this week. In that context, you could argue the unchanged readings on the Michigan series counted as a relief, particularly coming just days before the March FOMC meeting.

Hsu summed up the macro-sentiment stalemate. “Many are withholding judgment about the trajectory of the economy, particularly in the long-term, pending the results of November’s election,” she remarked.

Commenting in a Friday note, BMO’s Ian Lyngen said “the unifying theme remains that of crosscurrents.”