In the context of this week’s event risk, it’s worth taking a moment to highlight the sense of calm that prevailed across US rates on the eve of policy gatherings in Tokyo, Washington and London.

With the Fed on deck and the BoJ poised to begin dismantling the world’s long-running, most innovative, experiment in ultra-accommodative monetary policy, rates looked subdued.

Although equity volatility gets all the attention, it’s worth noting that bond vol has receded of late as well.

The MOVE, shown above, now sits at its lowest levels since September, when the market was grappling with a fairly rowdy bear steepener and an obstinate Fed.

Some worry US inflation overshoots in January and February were evidence to suggest the price growth impulse is rekindled, and could be on the verge of manifesting as a sustained upturn that undercuts whatever credibility the Fed managed to reclaim over the course of the hiking cycle. Through that lens, the decline in bond vol could be viewed as eerie.

At the same time, BMO’s US rates team observed that the four-week average intraday trading range at the front-end is the most muted since mid-October.

That too might be viewed as ominous if you believe markets and policymakers are insufficiently attentive to a nascent inflation re-acceleration.

This isn’t the stuff headlines are made of, but with potential catalysts coming into view, it’s all worth a mention. “The recent period of dampened volatility across asset classes is sure to be tested by this week’s FOMC events,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman said Monday. “After all, Wednesday afternoon presents a potentially pivotal moment for monetary policy expectations and the Fed’s guidance will play a key role in recasting assumptions around the direction of US rates over the balance of the year.”