Traders Eye Bank Of Japan Decision For Watershed Rate Hike

The Fed won’t be the only game in town this week.

In addition to the March FOMC meeting, policy decisions are due from the Bank of England and, more notably, the Bank of Japan, which may — may — raise rates for the first time since the Samurai.

It hasn’t really been that long since Japan hiked, but it feels like it. If you’re fresh out of college, new on Wall Street, you were in grade school for the last BoJ hike. Although Kazuo Ueda will almost surely pull the trigger over the next two meetings, it’s certainly possible he’ll hold off until April. (“We waited this long, what’s one more month?”)

A hike from Japan would end the world’s last negative rates regime. I previewed this on too many occasions to plausibly enumerate over the past — I don’t know, let’s call it six months, including last week in “A Monetary Moment Of Truth Draws Near.” Long story short, wage growth in Japan has some momentum. Enough momentum, perhaps, to underpin a self-fulfilling prophecy that banishes the deflation demon once and for all.

Count me (and a lot of other people) skeptical, but pay gains have been robust. And so-called “core, core” inflation’s been at or above 2% for two years.

Late last week, Rengo, the country’s largest union group, said workers won a pay increase in excess of 5% for the first time since 1991.

As the figure above shows, inflation’s receding, even as it matched the BoJ’s 2% target in January, but it should pick up again. Core inflation excluding fresh food (that’s the key gauge) will probably average around 2.5% over the first half of this year, economists reckon. When considered with the pay increases, Ueda has the excuse he needs to take another few steps down the road to policy normalization.

As discussed in the linked article above and also in “Is The BoJ About To Spoil Japan’s Record-Setting Stock Rally?,” a furious surge that pushed Japanese equities to their first record high in three decades hangs in the balance. One argument says stock buoyancy can be explained by Japan’s improving macro fundamentals. Another says it was mostly about FOMO and a weak yen. A BoJ hike, a formal end to yield-curve control and/or the cessation of equity ETF purchases by the central bank would test the mettle of local stock bulls and overseas bulls on local stocks, however you want to look at it.

In any case, whether the BoJ raises rates this week or next month, the communication that accompanies the March policy decision will revolve around the implications of an imminent end to negative rates and a careful dismantling of the bank’s multi-faceted easing regime.

In the UK, the BoE will obviously keep rates on hold. Inflation data’s due Wednesday. Recall that February’s meeting was notable for at least two, related, reasons. First, one of the dissents was for a cut. Second, the MPC softened its forward guidance. Actual cuts are presumably a ways away, but assuming the vote split looks like it did last month and the guidance is still neutral (as in not overtly hawkish), market expectations for the policy trajectory shouldn’t change that much.

There are a number of other rate decisions this week, including the RBA and SNB, as well as a hodgepodge of EM calls including a decision out of Russia, where Vladimir Putin extended his reign over the weekend in another choreographed “election.”

On the data front, releases out of the US are limited to builder sentiment, housing starts and existing home sales. China will release the January-February rollup for retail sales, industrial output and fixed investment. It’ll be mostly indecipherable. Flash PMIs from S&P Global are due this week as well.


 

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

2 thoughts on “Traders Eye Bank Of Japan Decision For Watershed Rate Hike

  1. Do we think Japanese stocks will like, or dislike, the end of negative rates?

    Simplistic question, and they sure seemed to like the prospect today, but I have a hard time keeping track of all the cross currents there.

Create a free account or log in

Gain access to read this article

Yes, I would like to receive new content and updates.

10th Anniversary Boutique

Coming Soon