Before The Black Swan, A ‘Big Summer Rally’?
Looking for another bullish narrative?
Of course you are! Who isn't?
The financial media, for one. They want bear narratives. Terminals sell, but not like fear.
And tabloid blogs for another. They want bear narratives too. You can't teach talent (and when you're a mountebank, you can't keep it on the rare occasions you stumble across it) but can train ambulance chasers.
Most regular investors don't actually need more bull narratives. Only the stupidest of simpletons doesn't understand the in
That is some pretty compelling data!
…….and what happened the other 45% of the time?…..and who is to say…
I recall seeing an analysis that showed average performance May-Sep differs considerably in years when the market is up Jan-Apr vs down Jan-Apr. Positive in the former case.
That said, SD is as important as, or more important than, mean.
It may be that the next few months are a sort of “not too warm, not too cold” environment. Macro cool enough to keep rate cuts in in view, warm enough to keep earnings afloat, with neither sentiment nor positioning extreme either way.