South Korea, Japan On Edge As Virus Spreads, Hits Economic Activity
“It may be a much longer road", CIO of the investment solutions group at State Street told Bloomberg TV on Friday, commenting on the economic fallout from the coronavirus.
As the week comes to a close, cases outside of mainland China are multiplying, causing considerable consternation among market participants. As documented here on Thursday, South Korea is becoming a hot zone. The number of reported cases jumped 48 on Friday, bringing the total to 204.
China now has 75,465 reported cases -
Indeed. Travel restrictions and social distancing measures; coming soon to a country near you.
Sure feels like the cat is already out of the bag in several busy, densely-populated countries with lots of international flights coming and going each day. I can’t see how this doesn’t spread rapidly throughout major cities that don’t possess the iron fist of the Chinese Government.
I’ve been reading the science and it seems, at least to me, that the spread can’t be stopped. The key to reading this is the growth outside of China. If it doubles by next weekend, we are in trouble. If the doubling time becomes shorter and shorter, we will have bigger things to worry about than the markets.
The algos, by now, have this written into their programs. A jump in the numbers or where the numbers are geographically located initiates a sell sequence. Rinse and repeat.
Agreed. If R0 is truly 4-5 (per the DARPA/Los Alamos study) and infected individuals can carry the virus asymptomatically for 3-4 weeks, it’s likely a lost cause at this point. I doubt other countries will be as effective as China has been (albeit belatedly) in enforcing strict quarantine.
Seems like we’re in for a long fight, and the best bets may be anti-virals, a vaccine, or, if we’re really lucky, warmer weather (I’m doubtful on this one).
“In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/