Right, so pretty much all you need to know about Monday is that Chinese equities did one thing and everybody else did something different.
US markets were quiet. The VIX is still hovering below 10 as the fleeting spike surrounding the Trump Jr. e-mails earlier this month has proven to be, well, fleeting:
The ChiNext collapsed 5% overnight on jitters about the effect Beijing’s deleveraging push will have on risk assets and the pain was widespread with the SHCOMP, the SZCOMP, and the CSI 300 all falling notably.
Here’s a fun YTD chart that should give you some perspective:
Any questions on that?
But Chinese macro is holding up – or at least the charade that is China macro is holding up:
Europe closed mixed after the June CPI print came in unchanged from a month earlier. The miners climbed on China’s GDP beat.
As Bloomberg writes, “investors in European equities are switching into stocks most geared to benefit from a pickup in economic growth and borrowing costs — including miners and banks — and deserting their defensive peers, reviving a trade that dominated the market at the end of last year”:
Oil didn’t do much, taking a breather after last week’s 5%+ gains as traders waited on something incremental to pin their hopes on. OPEC said compliance with the cuts fell to 92% in June from 110% in May.
You’ll want to watch the euro ahead of the ECB meeting as the common currency is trading near a 14-month high. Anything that can be interpreted as even remotely hawkish could trigger a rally.
“EURUSD came within striking distance of the 14-month high set last week at 1.1489 before option-related offers capped the pair,” traders reminded Bloomberg. “Similar option-related offers remain in place Monday, some tied to large 1.1500 option strikes that expire next week,” they added.
The dollar recovered – but only marginally and is still near a 10-month low. Specs are the most bearish in four years:
That’s thanks in no small part (or maybe “entirely” is better) to the fact that the incoming data simply doesn’t support another hike, as September odds fell to 10% on Friday following the lackluster CPI print:
Treasurys didn’t do much in the grand scheme of things coming of an eventful week that saw yields dive on a dovish Yellen and the above-mentioned data disappointment.
All told, the mood remains “risk-on.” Just ask Citi’s Global Risk Aversion Macro Index, which is now back to pre-crisis levels…