What Does History Say About Mideast Turmoil, Crude And Inflation?

More questions than answers, as per usual.


Forget The Bombs, Buy The Stocks.

Risk on.

CPI Misses As Investors Get Possible Reprieve From Inflation Jitters

Do you feel better?

10Y Yields Are Back Above 3% And Oil Is Surging – What Happens Next?

10Y yields rose above 3% again overnight, so I guess Jamie Dimon is getting closer to being “right” all the time.

Pushing Against The Big Wave

“And if the money velocity stops declining, and god forbid, even increases, what will happen to the mountain of monetary stimulus that has been administered over the past decade?”

And Now, Back To Your Regularly Scheduled Minefield Sprint: Full Week Ahead Preview

So yeah, cue the mascot minefield meme.

‘Don’t Panic’ And The ‘Last Man Standing’

Douglas Adams time.

David Stockman Is Not Particularly Amused With Your Inflation Targeting

“Is there any evidence that the microscopic variance between 1.9%  and 2.3% inflation on the PCE deflator makes any difference to the performance and prosperity of the main street economy?”

Follow The (Convexity) Flows: Restriking Of The Fed Put Revisited

“In that environment, convexity withdrawal creates a reinforcing loop where more turbulence in risk assets tends to cause stability in fixed income.”

‘America First’: Full Week Ahead Preview

Ok, well all eyes will be on the U.S. in the week ahead.

Bad Things Come In 3s.

This was just the kind of day that makes you dread the rest of the week.

Are We Living In A Self-Regulating System?

I don’t know, fuck it.

Behold: An ‘Incubator For Vicious Steepeners’

Something tells us this is an underappreciated tail risk, indeed.

A Unified Theory Of Everything: From The Fed, To Volatility, To LIBOR To BTFD

Got all of that? 

A Bit Of Confusion.

Well, that was interesting.