Finally, in case you haven’t had enough of “connecting the dots” today, here’s another exercise for you…
CPI rose 0.4% vs est. 0.3%
Forecast range from up 0.2% to up 0.4% from 76 estimates
Ex. food, energy up 0.2% vs est. 0.2%
CPI y/y rose 1.9% vs est. 1.8%
“Higher real rates, inflation and wage growth to pick up, and inequality going down. This is the opposite conclusion that almost all economists are subscribing to.”
This week’s market-moving events are likely to be unscheduled. Remember, Irma is still a catastrophic natural disaster even if it didn’t quite turn into a scene out of a bad Jake Gyllenhaal movie. And as the above mentioned Ben Purvis notes, “Kim Jong Un [could decide] to inject himself into the conversation again,” at any time.
Perhaps the most amusing thing about it all is that it’s become so ubiquitous and reliable that it can now be summarized succinctly in the form of a bullet point (and apparently “bulletproof”) investment thesis…
“I was too optimistic!”
“…there is no guarantee that a change in policy approach would do anything more than threaten even greater collateral damage and unintended consequences.”
CPI rose 0.1% vs est. 0.2%, according to the BLS.
Ex. food, energy up 0.1% vs est. 0.2%
Well, this could have been better.
“That could be interpreted as meaning that euro gains are excessive compared to the economic improvement in the region.”
“The BOJ has done what it can with monetary policy. It can’t be helped.”
“But, hey, we’re hitting our numbers just fine as it stands and, if you hadn’t noticed, our stock price hit a new high yesterday. Why mess up a good thing?”
“This is quite amazing given where we are in the global economic cycle.”
“…market participants are understandably worried about how they will be weaned off the current highly-liquid environment.”