Goldman Slashes US GDP Forecast On ‘Considerably More Adverse’ Tariff Policy
Don’t look now, but Goldman’s forecast for US economic growth is below blue-chip consensus all
Household Mood Worsens Dramatically In New Fed Poll
The good news is, inflation expectations in the new vintage of the NY Fed’s monthly
Scott Told Me So (Golden Age Loading)
We gotta get this sucker rebalanced! That’s the rallying cry on Wall Street, where “Because
‘You Can’t Look At The Stock Market’
Thankfully, it’s all part of the plan. That joke’s not going to get old, and
‘Extreme’ US Policies Risk ‘Ugly’ American Exceptionalism
Way back last month, JPMorgan described three types of US economic exceptionalism: “Good,” “bad” and
Traders Brace As US Inflation Updates Collide With Tariff Soap Opera
Investors and traders (two distinct classes of market participants, only one of which makes money
Hell’s Still Freezing Over
Don’t say it out loud (seriously, don’t, unless you want to get called in for
What Are We Even Talking About?
I don’t do emojis, nor memes and I’m almost illiterate when it comes to text
Is Europe Back? Investors Seem To Think So
US equities saw a third inflow over the latest weekly reporting period, suggesting at least
Powell Says Words
Jerome Powell said some things on Friday. Things like the US economy’s still in a
‘Evil’ US Trade Policy Is Knee-Capping China Already
China released the January-February trade rollup on Friday and the verdict wasn’t great. Exports grew
Not Bad. Not Good Either.
Mostly inoffensive. That’s as good a two-word description of Friday’s US jobs report as you’ll
Is Mr. Market Already Tired Of The Bullsh-t?
Whatever happens on jobs Friday and thereafter, the price action on Wall Street this week
There’s No Plan. Really There Isn’t.
If there were remaining questions as to whether Donald Trump and Howard Lutnick have a
Will Chinese Tech Hype Cycle Burst America’s AI Capex Bubble?
Forget DeepSeek. That’s yesterday’s AI disruption, and it’s out of style already. Everybody’s wearing Qwen
Thanks Elon!
The good news is, initial jobless claims in the US receded from a two-month high
ECB Delivers Sixth Cut As Europe Prepares To Rearm
The ECB cut rates on Thursday as expected. The question’s what to do next. Inflation’s
In Germany: History
Germany’s going to spend some money. Not because they want to, necessarily, but because they
Chinese Economy Grew 5% In 2025
The Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2025, early estimates released on Wednesday showed. That’s
Crucial US Services Sector Update Offers Reprieve Despite Tariff ‘Chaos’
Phew. Dodged a bullet. The US services sector held up better than feared last month,
Private Hiring Slows Sharply In America, Underscoring Recession Worries
US private sector hiring ran at just half the pace economists expected in February, data
‘Trump Put’ Struck At SPX 5555, One Bank Says
Where’s the so-called “Trump put” struck? Said differently, what’s the pain threshold for equity losses
The Fog Of War
Wall Street tried on Tuesday to claw back the worst of the session’s tariff-related losses,
Trump’s Probably Serious About Annexing Canada
I wonder sometimes what 45/47’s followers imagine goes on every morning in blue households across
You Can’t Fix Stupid
Tariffs. They’re news. Global risk sentiment took a hit Tuesday as Donald Trump followed through
US Corporate Profits Aren’t What You Think
Over the weekend, I talked a bit about the read-through of suddenly soft US macro
‘No Room Left’
As of the closing bell on Wall Street Monday, there was “no room left for
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