China Still Dangerously Close To Deflation Event Horizon Despite CPI Fillip
You may see a headline or two touting the liveliest read on Chinese consumer price
Meanwhile, Last Night
“Just an old fashioned.” “Sure. Do you care what bourbon?” He look quizzically at the
Are Trump And Musk Trying To Engineer A ‘Government Recession’?
Donald Trump and Elon Musk (only one of whom was elected, by the way) may
Consumer Mood Darkens, Inflation Expectations Soar In Dour Sentiment Readout
The preliminary read on America’s marquee gauge of consumer sentiment was very rough for February,
Jobs Report Shows Rapid Hiring Before January Slowdown
The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in January and overall hiring was weaker
Don’s Dollar Dilemma
“The strong-dollar policy is completely intact with President Trump.” So said Scott Bessent on Thursday,
Amazon Asks For Patience Amid Slower Sales, Soaring AI Spend
Amazon said Thursday sales grew 10% to $187.8 billion during the holiday quarter. That was
Silver Linings And Catch-22s
Wall Street’s good at finding reasons to stay bullish. Note: Being good at coming up
Chasing Productivity
Everyone who fancies themselves a macro maven likes to muse about labor productivity, but virtually
A Dove’s Coup
Catherine Mann and diehard dove Swati Dhingra wanted to go big on Thursday, when the
Why Trump Actually Needs Less ‘US Exceptionalism’
Late last week, I said it’d be ironic if “US exceptionalism” peaked in 2024 and
Is The US Services Slowdown Real?
The marquee gauge of US services sector activity was kinda “blah” in data released Wednesday,
Scott’s First QRA
Treasury believes its current auction sizes leave it well positioned to address potential changes to
New Data Suggests US Private Hiring Accelerated Sharply In Recent Months
US private sector employers added far more jobs in January than expected, Wednesday’s update from
Google Falls Short In Cloud, Overshoots On Capex
Alphabet on Tuesday turned in a set of results which, at first glance anyway, looked
Is 2025 ‘Buy America’ Credo Too Consensus To Be Right?
If you chart the relative performance of US equities versus global shares excluding US stocks,
New Clippy
I talked at some length earlier this week about Mag7 capex, and the extent to
US Job Openings Plunge In Good (And Bad) News
US job openings undershot meaningfully in key labor market data released Tuesday. There were 7.6
Holy Grail
Tuesday dawned the same way every other day’s dawned since January 20 and the same
This Is The ‘True Source’ Of Mag7 Magnificence
The episode known in market circles as the “DeepSeek shock” was an unwelcome reminder: Capex
Muzzle Velocity
On February 2, Ezra Klein released an audio essay called “Don’t Believe Him.” It begins
Art Of The Asinine
Art of the deal! Or art of the bluff. Or art of the farce. Or
What Tariff Man Hath Wrought
Anywhere between 5% and 10%. That’s how much US equities could sell off as a
Nascent US Manufacturing Recovery Marred By Inflation Jitters
Behold: A ray of sunshine through the trade storm clouds. The marquee gauge of US
‘An Act Of Economic Warfare’: Tariff Man Trump Stuns Global Markets
Donald Trump’s latest and “greatest” tariff escalations roiled global markets on Monday. From Taipei to
‘Run Your Models’: Trump Forces Fed To Do The Tariff Math
Higher prices. That’s the answer if the question is about the macro read-through of Donald
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