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Featured

‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026
  • There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Great Television

March 3, 2025March 5, 2025

A lot of folks seem to think Donald Trump knows what he’s doing when it

Read More

13 Comments on Great Television

New Orders Collapse, Price Pressures Surge As Tariffs Upend US Manufacturing

March 3, 2025March 4, 2025

Yuck. That’s one word to describe the juxtaposition between a sharp deceleration in a key

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5 Comments on New Orders Collapse, Price Pressures Surge As Tariffs Upend US Manufacturing

Are War Bonds The ECB’s Next ‘Whatever It Takes’ Challenge?

March 3, 2025March 4, 2025

The ECB, which meets this week, has an unenviable job: Monetary policy in the euro-zone’s

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5 Comments on Are War Bonds The ECB’s Next ‘Whatever It Takes’ Challenge?

Doubt Creeps Into EPS Growth Forecasts As US Economy Stutters

March 2, 2025March 2, 2025

The nascent US economic slowdown unfurling across a number of key macro metrics and indicators

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US Jobs Report Looms With Traders On Slowdown Watch

March 2, 2025March 3, 2025

It’s jobs week in the US, and the numbers better not disappoint. The nascent slowdown

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8 Comments on US Jobs Report Looms With Traders On Slowdown Watch

The Devil’s Greatest Trick

March 1, 2025March 12, 2025

[Editor’s note: In consideration of the historic events which unfolded at The White House on

Read More

44 Comments on The Devil’s Greatest Trick

MECA!

February 28, 2025March 3, 2025

Make recessions great again. Sorry. That’s the worst kind of cheap, unimaginative punchline, which is

Read More

8 Comments on MECA!

Gold!

February 28, 2025March 3, 2025

Gold! Every time I mention it, someone loses their mind. Hold onto your sanity. Gold!

Read More

4 Comments on Gold!

US Macro Outlook Darkens Further As Real Spending Craters, Core Inflation Stuck

February 28, 2025March 2, 2025

“Oh, Ey!” as the Sopranos cast might put it. Real personal spending in the US

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7 Comments on US Macro Outlook Darkens Further As Real Spending Craters, Core Inflation Stuck

Where’s The ‘Trump Put’?!

February 28, 2025March 1, 2025

“Nouveau bulls” are nervous and the S&P’s one meaningful weekly loss away from creating the

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6 Comments on Where’s The ‘Trump Put’?!

The State Of The AI Narrative Post-Earnings

February 27, 2025

Nvidia suffered a rocky — albeit not exactly disastrous — post-earnings trade on Thursday, when

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6 Comments on The State Of The AI Narrative Post-Earnings

Tariffs. Again.

February 27, 2025February 28, 2025

Metrics and benchmarks. You need them if you’re going to assess outcomes in the context

Read More

21 Comments on Tariffs. Again.

Another Bad Omen In Tortured US Housing Market

February 27, 2025February 28, 2025

Bad news. More bad news. More more bad news. Pending home sales in the US

Read More

3 Comments on Another Bad Omen In Tortured US Housing Market

US Jobless Claims Spike Amid DOGE Worries

February 27, 2025February 28, 2025

US jobless claims overshot meaningfully in Thursday’s update, a development which may underscore growing concerns

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Nvidia Beats, Guides For More Amid ‘Amazing’ Demand

February 26, 2025February 27, 2025

Records. Lots of them. That’s what Nvidia reported on Wednesday afternoon, following another lackluster session

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3 Comments on Nvidia Beats, Guides For More Amid ‘Amazing’ Demand

This Isn’t A Drill Anymore

February 26, 2025February 28, 2025

Late last year, I wrote about “anticipatory obedience” in the context of America’s tech moguls

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27 Comments on This Isn’t A Drill Anymore

Art Of The Steal

February 26, 2025February 27, 2025

Congratulations to Donald Trump. He successfully extorted a desperate, war-torn Ukraine for a huge share

Read More

22 Comments on Art Of The Steal

New US Home Sales Crash In Latest Data Disappointment

February 26, 2025February 27, 2025

New US home sales plunged in January following back-to-back increases, Wednesday’s sole notable US macro

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Leave a Comment on New US Home Sales Crash In Latest Data Disappointment

About Those Leveraged ETFs…

February 25, 2025

“Gamblers.” That’s how Bloomberg described market participants who avail themselves of leveraged ETFs in a

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2 Comments on About Those Leveraged ETFs…

It’s The Job Losses, Not The Spending Cuts

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

Benchmark US yields were 4.80% or so on January 13. On Tuesday, following another lackluster

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10 Comments on It’s The Job Losses, Not The Spending Cuts

American ‘Golden Age’ Off To Rough Start As Consumer Confidence Plunges

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

Surprise! Confidence among US consumers fell off the map in February, as rampant policy uncertainty, tariff-related

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4 Comments on American ‘Golden Age’ Off To Rough Start As Consumer Confidence Plunges

Maybe Houses Should Be — Gasp! — A Depreciating Asset

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

The annual pace of US home price growth across 20 large metro areas picked up

Read More

26 Comments on Maybe Houses Should Be — Gasp! — A Depreciating Asset

Chip Wars Rage

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

The US is hell-bent on stymieing China’s semiconductor ambitions and thereby impeding one of Xi

Read More

2 Comments on Chip Wars Rage

0DTEs Have Never Been More Prevalent

February 24, 2025February 24, 2025

Not so long ago, you could scarcely go a day without reading something, somewhere in

Read More

3 Comments on 0DTEs Have Never Been More Prevalent

Consensus Gone Wrong?

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

Does the nascent “buy Europe” theme have any staying power? It depends. On whether the

Read More

4 Comments on Consensus Gone Wrong?

Commencing US Growth Scare

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

The US macro narrative’s shifting. Fast. As discussed at some length Monday in “Traders Rush

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1 Comment on Commencing US Growth Scare

Traders Rush To Hedge Stock Crash Amid ‘Trump 2.0’ Policy Jitters

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

Market participants are waking up to an uncomfortable reality regarding the near-term domestic macro read-through

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14 Comments on Traders Rush To Hedge Stock Crash Amid ‘Trump 2.0’ Policy Jitters

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Mr. Lucky on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • Engineer on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
  • Dean Grossmith on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!
  • John L on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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