To let some analysts tell it, Alphabet’s virtually uninvestable.
Pretty much everything to do with the business is subject to intractable ambiguity. From generalized macro angst tied to the trade war to cloud questions to the implications of the AI arms race for the company’s search monopoly to Alphabet’s belabored efforts to disavow that monopoly label in the face of intense regulatory scrutiny, it’s all questions and no answers.
On the bright side, the company trades at just ~16x on a forward multiple which, compared to something like Tesla, is a regular steal. And at the end of the day, the monopoly business is a good one. Too good, in fact. That’s why monopolies are generally illegal.
With all of that in mind, Alphabet rang up $90.2 billion on the top-line during the quarter ended March 31, according to results released after the bell on Wall Street Thursday.
The revenue readout was basically in line, and represented 12% YoY growth. Stripping out currency effects, sales grew 14%. The ex-TAC print was $76.49 billion, up 13% from the same period a year ago.
Frankly, and with the usual caveat that I cover big tech earnings the same way I cover big bank earnings, which is not as a sector analyst, but rather as an editorial imperative, the results looked decent under the circumstances.
Cloud sales were up 28%, slower than the prior quarter’s YoY growth rate, and maybe a touch short at $12.26 billion. But given the relative discount for the shares and what it was probably fair to call subdued expectations headed in, that might be good enough, even as investors typically demand beats from key growth drivers. It helps that Cloud was more profitable than expected in Q1, even as sales were a shade light.
Sundar Pichai played cheerleader, which is fine because that’s his job. Growth and momentum are “healthy,” he said Thursday, and it’s all thanks to the company’s “unique full stack approach to AI.” You always want a “full stack.” Just ask a family of star-spangled elephants waddling around your local IHOP.
Pichai went on to describe a “super exciting” quarter. He’s particularly proud of Gemini, “which is achieving breakthroughs in performance and is an extraordinary foundation” for Alphabet’s “future innovation.”
Personally, as someone who uses Google’s suite of services every day, I find Gemini to be intrusive and annoying. But I’m the guy who turns out all the lights and pretends not to be home when the kids are out begging for candy on Halloween. That is: I find pretty much everything to be intrusive and annoying, so take my criticism with a grain of salt.
Apparently, 1.5 billion people are using Google’s “AI Overviews.” I don’t care for those either. I’m also not sure what it means for someone to “use” the overviews. They show up automatically. Am I a “user” when I click on a link in the overview modules? Probably, but I’d rather they weren’t there.
Anyway, net income and EPS rose almost 50% YoY. Alphabet easily beat on the bottom line.
Most importantly — and I buried the lede on purpose — the company raised the dividend and announced $70 billion in new authorized buybacks. That’s what you do when you’re concerned investors might be getting antsy about, for example, enormous outlays on unproven technology.
This is shareholder capitalism. If you need more time to execute on your game plan, it’s for sale. Time, I mean. All you have to do is toss some cash at shareholders and they’ll hand you some more rope.



buybacks because you can’t really buy anything else big right now because of trial and cap ex spend is at record highs
I’m not so adverse to kids on Halloween (though certainly don’t do anything to particularly encourage them to knock on MY door) – but do also find Gemini a bit annoying, as I do the endless new features of all the digital tools I use and the constant solicitations (sometimes requirements) of seemingly every business for adoption of their app (driven perhaps by Google Play and all the data gathering they all want to monetize?). And don’t get me started on required updates and forced obsolescence. Maybe Google will get a bigger piece of me if I decide to give MisterSofty the middle finger to the requirement I purchase a couple new PCs because my perfectly functional existing ones aren’t capable of upgrading to Win 11 this fall…..
“You always want a ‘full stack.’ Just ask a family of star-spangled elephants waddling around your local IHOP.”
Nice.
That took me a minute then turned into the best laugh of the day. Heisenberg snark is the best
Oh c’mon, AI Overviews are generally pretty nice. For this guy at least.
Obviously, OpenAI is more fun to talk to.
It seems uninvestable to me mainly because of the uncertainty surrounding the antitrust rulings and the potentially large negative impacts of the ultimate remedies.
Do you not agree?
One bright spot I think they have, in what seems to be a rising part of the AI business is WAYMO. It was a theme in Tesla’s earnings also—-robo taxis. They own WAYMO it provides 250,000 ride\week in the few markets it operates in.