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If Everything’s Exempted, Is It Still A Trade War?
As it turns out, the trade war's a silly charade. Who knew?!
On Friday, reports indicated Beijing's
Ytd, US market down 6%, Canada up 4%, Europe up 12%, Mexico up 22%. Is this a vote on leadership?
LMAO. 100% approval rating. It’s good to be the king.
I’m sure amongst the youth mired in mid/high 20%s unemployment, that number is spot on!
So, they may well tariff everything they can but what the mega-caps pay to have carve outs. I have some friends bracing for impact for their small businesses. I suppose the Walmart’s, Apple’s and Exxon’s will be fine. As always.
Xi at only 100%? Re-education! for all whose whose dials don’t go to eleven. It is sobering that Trump still polls at 44%. Or ever did.
Market lifted by each hint of de-tariff, un-tariff, dis-tariff, not sure what the catchword is.
Will whatever economic sanity returns be too little, too late? Don’t eat a bullet, but continue eating poison? Slow rather than fast?
1Q earnings so far feel rather irrelevant. How business was before Liberation Day is the definition of “old news”. Guides are broadly what you’d expect. Companies with direct tariff exposure are guiding (or not) differently from companies without. So far companies aren’t assuming a broad recession, although certain industries are already there, e.g. travel.
Meanwhile the SP500 leviates at 20X all-time record margins X robust growth expectations. Yes, the index is dominated by the best companies with the strongest models, deepest moats, most quasi-monopolies in the world, growth and defensiveness combined. Even a tariff triggered stagflation recession won’t dent a business as strong as GOOG’s, say they who can’t remember even as far back as 2022’s merely-a-slowdown economy.