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Traders Brace For Data Tsunami With GDP, Payrolls Due
This'll be a busy week on the macro-market front, and probably on the political front too.
The data
Like it or not, 1Q reports from BLD (Before Liberation Day) and April econ data are stale even before they are decanted.
This is one of these uncomfortable times when investors have to use their understanding of the economic linkages and make forecasts, without much historical precedent to guide us.
Clarification – guides or lack of guides, new orders, and other forward looking data of varying degrees of softness are not stale.
I think H is right that we will see “scary” NFP prints at some point this year. My best guess is fall, but who knows exactly when. I don’t believe there is anything that anyone can do to stop it at this point. It’s merely a matter of degree and for how long.
However, I believe Trump is hoping for weaker employment data, as he has convinced himself that will be the appropriate pretext for firing Powell. Never underestimate a megalomaniacal sociopath’s conviction that everyone will agree with them. They just “need the conditions to be right for it.” I think unemployment rate hitting 4.5% would be all it will take for the “Trump trigger” to take effect.