Fool’s Gold

Over the weekend, Scott Bessent said a ridiculous thing.

He said a lot of ridiculous things, actually, including that he doesn’t know whether Donald Trump’s spoken to China about tariffs or not (how, exactly, does the Treasury Secretary not know that?), but his indignant rebuke of The Wall Street Journal stuck out as especially absurd.

“There was a story 10 days ago that said this is the worst April for the stock market since the Great Depression,” Bessent told ABC’s Martha Raddatz. “10 days later and the Nasdaq is now up on the month of April and I haven’t seen a story that says, ‘Oh, stock market has biggest bounce-back ever.'”

A few things here. First, the story he’s referring to was about the Dow, not the Nasdaq. The Dow’s still down for April. Meaningfully. If that were Bessent’s only infraction, it’d be forgivable. But it wasn’t.

As more than a few netizens pointed out when Scott posted the clip of his ABC interview on social media, his remark about the stock market was flagrantly disingenuous, and made more so considering it emanated from a man whose mentor ranks in the top five investors of all time. The reason stocks (and bonds) recovered was precisely because Bessent and Donald Trump, spooked by the prospect of a bear market for equities (and a malfunctioning Treasury market), U-turned on tariffs, announcing a 90-day “pause” applicable to countries other than China, exempting consumer electronics from the triple-digit levies on Beijing and just generally engaging in damage control tactics at the first hint of additional, renewed weakness in financial assets.

Moreover, and as I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, it’s ludicrous to take credit for a partial recovery in stocks from a plunge you yourself caused. Directly. The “directly” point’s important. This isn’t like George W. Bush “caused” the financial crisis because he was president in the lead-up to it. Trump literally caused April’s market fireworks with something he himself did, namely showing up in the Rose Garden with a giant piece of poster board announcing eye-watering tariffs applicable to everyone from Europe to Vietnam to a couple of islands inhabited solely by penguins.

Don’t get me wrong: It’s nice that Bessent and Trump didn’t go even further and countenance a GFC-style plunge in equities and a complete meltdown in cash Treasurys. But Bessent’s asking too much when he implicitly demands the Journal publish a front-page story hailing the “biggest bounce-back ever.” I’d be remiss not to note that even if the financial media were so inclined, this isn’t, on any metric, a historic “bounce-back.” Rather, it’s a partial recovery that still left both the Dow and S&P tracking for a third straight monthly decline with three trading sessions left in April.

Gaslighting’s to be expected from politicians, and particularly from those employed in the service of autocrats. But this sort of thing — Bessent’s blatantly silly remarks about stocks from a guy who knows better — serves no purpose whatsoever. He’s not manipulating anyone, he’s not convincing anyone and he’s not fooling anyone. All Scott’s doing is making a fool of himself.

The figure below illustrates the inescapable reality of the situation as it exists on or about 100 days into Trump’s second term.

These were among the worst first 100 days in office for the S&P of any president.

I’m sure Bessent has an excuse for that too, or some set of talking points to read from when queried, but you shouldn’t believe him. Because, unfortunately, he’s shown himself to be just another sycophant who can’t be trusted to shoot straight with the people he’s duty-bound to serve.

The bottom line when it comes to the first 100 days of Trump’s second term: All that glitters (or Twitters) isn’t a golden age.


 

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10 thoughts on “Fool’s Gold

  1. Trump and Bessent have limited time to run up the stock market before the next round of forced errors will force it down again. Inflation data will show up in the numbers soon, and the tariff package’s pause is a ticking time bomb. They need to get the market as high as possible on hot air before it sinks into bear territory again.

  2. And THIS was supposed to be the “adult in the room.”

    For all those who voted for President Pump to sugar-high the markets, fuck you very much. Hope you are getting what you wanted or what deserve.

  3. I’m sorry, but this article contains an inaccuracy which I simply cannot allow to slide.

    There are also seals living on that island.

    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

  4. By the time the hundreds of local talk radio shows cover this interview you won’t recognize it. Have you ever traveled by car across the country and dialed into local talk radio? Talk about fiction feeling more real than reality! I have always wondered why the attack on the media never includes talk radio, where conservatives dominate….never mind, I know LOL. I think you would be amazed at the number of people who get most their information from talk radio!

  5. Putting Soros and Bessent together as if there is some kind of parallel is a total mistake. Both were my clients once paying my companies more than we all pay H. Soros paid, was very smart in a macro sense, didn’t favor my style, and quit after a year. Bessent worked with a various hedge-types and nevever stuck. Around 2012 (?) he signed up for my research and he was incommunicado most of the time. He bounced on and off the NY desk. I had numbers for him in the Hamptons. He was an erratic reader, his trading made no sense and the person I talked to had no idea what Scott was doing. Bessent is still a bad debt on my books. I don’t know the man. He is pretty and he seems to be a con-man. George takes no shit and I am surprised he hired Scott again, but George is now truly old. I can’t imagine he would be polite about Bessent.
    God help the U.S.

    1. Bessent launched his macro fund in 2015 with an impressive initial AUM – $4.5BN I think? In 6/2024 it had $300MM AUM and fewer than ten clients per reports I found – recognizing HF disclosure is spotty. Returns were inconsistent and poor. If reports correct, over 90% of AUM left. That’s the caliber of HF manager Trump chose for Treasury. Better than his other hires, better than the runner-up, but not great. Did it occur to Trump that running a tiny HF isn’t great experience for running the US Treasury? Of course not, but did it not occur to all the Street that bet on Bessent?

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