Thursday: You Only Need One Chart
A little (possibly coordinated) help from i) a Fed that’s rolling out a cautiously hawkish message (again), ii) an ECB that’s suddenly walking back its hawkishness (i.e. leaning dovish – again), iii) some underwhelming inflation data out of Germany, iv) a subsequent widening of UST-Bund spreads, all conspiring to support the dollar, and just like that… f*cking presto… higher stocks as the reflation meme is viable again.
3 Hours: How Long It Took NY Times To Teach Donald Trump A Lesson On Thursday
“Change libel laws?”…
“Why Is The VIX So Low?” A Macro Strategist’s 4-Word Answer
“Until we see a deterioration in credit quality across the broad economy, we can probably put one burning question to bed. Why is the VIX so low? Because it should be.”
Presenting Your Ultimate Visual Guide To A Long Ass Brexit
To be sure, we’ve all had a long time to prepare for Brexit. So long, in fact, that I no longer have to put the word Brexit in scare quotes. Thanks to the infinite wisdom of Nigel Farage (and a whole bunch of people who, based on Google Trends, didn’t have any idea what the EU was before they voted to leave it), Brexit is now a real proper noun.
Chart Of The Day: Buy-The-Dip’s Existential Crisis
Submitted for your (dis)approval.
Seeing Is No Longer Believing
These days, “seeing” is no longer “believing.”
Reflation Frustration: Bloomberg Explains The Market’s Most Important Dynamic
We’ve talked so much in these pages about why cross-asset correlations matter that our (digital) pens are dry and our (virtual) voices are hoarse. On Thursday, Bloomberg proves they know this is “kind of a big deal.”
Wall Street Journal: There’s A ‘Bigly’ Labor Shortage – And Trump’s About To Make Things Worse
You can’t cure stupid. Which means the irony inherent in paying billions of taxpayer dollars to
F*ck This, Is It Saturday Yet? Markets Weary After Trying Month
Well, I suppose the overarching narrative here for retail investors is pretty goddamn simple: buy
Trader: “Here’s Why I Don’t Believe In This Stock Bounce”
“If the market doesn’t go some way to validating that view today, then I’ll be spending tomorrow analyzing what I got wrong or what bullish driver I underestimated.”
One Trader Asks: “Jeez Louise, Is It Only Thursday?”
Having spent Monday contemplating how and why traders have lost their confidence, Tuesday explaining that
Key Calls (Thursday): LULU Is A Lemon And Other Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
Dear America: Don’t Fall For The O.J. Simpson Glove Trick With Trump & Russia
No longer is this a question of establishing enough coincidences to render those coincidences … well … to render them not coincidental, it’s now gotten to the point where there’s almost too much proof. That is, this is one of those rare cases where the sheer amount of incriminating evidence has accidentally created its own smoke screen.
Margin Debt Hits Record $530 Billion Or, 1 Whole Microsoft
“The recent buildup is not in itself problematic or evidence of a substantive change in usage of leverage.”
“‘Buy-The-Dip’: Definitely My Favorite Sin”
And then… and then you bought the dip.
Border Wall To Keep Out Hispanic Immigrants To Be Built By … Hispanic Immigrants
“I am not against immigrants by any stretch of the imagination,†said Mr. Burgos, whose father came to the U.S. from Ecuador.
Just Another Junk Bond Chart To Ignore On A Slow Wednesday…
…just something else you can probably ignore if you’re in junk bonds.
It Would Be Great If You’d Start Using Your Credit Card… Or Would It?
“Whatever the reason, it’s probably a good bet that consumer spending will remain underwhelming until Americans feel more comfortable using their credit cards again. And while that will provide a boost to both activity and bond yields it will also, ironically enough, set the stage for the next recession.”
‘Bigly’ Earnings Growth “Isn’t A Fantasy” Because Wall Street Says It Will Eventually Be Real
“For the first time since 2011, hopes for double-digit growth in U.S. earnings aren’t a fantasy [because] Wall Street analysts have been standing firm on forecasts.”
One Word, And One Word Only: “Duration”
When central banks pull the punchbowl away, you’re going to have some problems if you’re caught with your hand in the duration cookie jar.
Goldman Answers The $100 Billion Question: “Why Is Loan Growth Collapsing The Most Since 2008?”
“The sharp deceleration in commercial and industrial loan growth has generated a sense of cognitive dissonance among market participants, who are otherwise confronting generally encouraging growth data.”
Zuck To SNAP: “Don’t Make Me Be A Bad Guy, Come On”
“Don’t make have to do this please. Come on. Don’t make me be a bad guy, come on.”
Chart Of The Day: The ECB Is Running Out Of Excuses
” The broad based risk-on, over the past couple of weeks across European risk assets, has increased risks that should the political uncertainty ease post the French elections, rate hike newsflow will continue to grow.”
Wall Street Journal Doesn’t See What’s So Damn Suspicious About Obstructing Justice
The Wall Street Journal, like most other “Conservative but not insane” media outlets, is having
Volatility Collapses (Again) As Investors Cling To Goldilocks Outlook On Brexit Wednesday
It’s quiet out there. Well, except for that whole UK officially leaving the EU thing.
Trader: You’re “An Emotional Train Wreck” – But Buying-The-Dip Might Help
“Decide questions for yourself like whether global growth is expanding or not? At the end of the day is there likely to be additional or less quantitative easing pumped into the system? Are sovereign wealth funds apt to continue to increase their commitment to global equities or go back to sovereign debt coupon clipping?”
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