Good news, bad news. Which do you want first?
I’ll go bad. Seasonal hiring was off to a very, very slow start in September, according to Thursday’s update from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
As a quick reminder: You have to compare September and October hiring plans to other Septembers and Octobers. That’s the only way to get an apples-to-apples comparison. On that score, September of 2026 stacked up poorly indeed.
As the figure shows, the 90,787 hires employers announced last month were the fewest for any September going back 15 years. Hiring was down 38% versus last year at Spirit Halloween and Michaels. (What a tragedy, I know.)
It’s worth noting that the slow start to holiday hiring compared to last year narrowed the January-September gap between cumulative YTD hiring plans in 2026 versus 2025. Announced hiring plans are now running more or less even with last year (210,612 versus 204,939).
The figure below gives you some historical context. Some of the tallies are obviously distorted by pandemic dynamics, but the read-across seems clear enough to this observer: The uncertainty associated with Donald Trump’s second term is having an impact on employer psychology.
“Companies are in a wait-and-see period,” Andy Challenger said Thursday. “Employers are facing high energy costs, an uncertain war in Iran, a rate hike that could make hiring more expensive, plus the likelihood of surging healthcare costs.”
So that’s the bad news. The good news is, job cut announcements fell sharply in September both relative to the prior month and versus the same month a year ago. Indeed, 43,281 job cuts counted as the fewest for any September since 2022.
For the year, employers have announced 573,195 job cuts. That’s down almost 40% from the same stretch in 2025 and 15% fewer once you control for Elon Musk’s DOGE purge.
Tellingly, macro conditions (not AI) was the leading cause for job cuts in September, accounting for one in every four layoff announcements. Suffice to say “the macro backdrop” remains vexing.
The updated figure above shows you the top reasons for job cuts in 2026. Market and Economic Conditions ranks second, behind AI.
By sector, Tech continues to lead all industries, accounting for nearly one in every three layoffs announced this year.
Bottom line: Thursday’s release underscored the “no hiring, no firing” characterization of the US labor market. I realize that’s clichéd, but it’s apt and thereby unavoidable.
“We’ve seen layoff activity subside over [the] year, but we’re not seeing the surge of hiring plans that come with the holiday season, which suggests a very cautious approach,” Challenger said.
