A diesel crisis, an unpopular war in the Mideast (is there another kind of Mideast war?), soaring mortgage rates and no respite from a generalized affordability crisis entering its sixth year.
If that’s not a recipe for an electoral wipeout, I don’t know what is. Thankfully for Republicans ahead of the US mid-terms, the GOP’s a personality cult. And cult leaders have visited upon their followers much worse than high prices without much in the way of defection.
I’m joking. Sort of. About as much as Donald Trump was joking when he grimly quipped, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, ok?” (As it turns out, Trump might not lose his freedom either, just as long as he could make the case that the shooting was an official act.)
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week showed Trump’s approval rating was just 32%, the worst of his political career.
The figure above shows Trump’s net approval. The -34% figure reflects a dramatic souring of public opinion versus the beginning of his second term, when a net 6% of voters approved of his job performance. Simply put: The more “work” Trump does, the less favorably Americans view his leadership.
As Reuters was keen to point out, a mere 17% of poll respondents said they approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living. That’s a veritable disaster.
Setting aside obligatory ethnocentric dog whistling and naked appeals to xenophobic nationalism, Trump ran on a promise to address America’s affordability crisis. It worked. But he hasn’t delivered, and it shows in the polling.
As the figure shows, cost of living is (by far) Trump’s worst issue in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, and that’s generally true across national surveys. Immigration’s his “best,” but even there Trump’s underwater.
As discussed here, the GOP’s at risk of losing key senate and gubernatorial races in November, and notwithstanding Trump’s notorious magnetism, he’s losing Republican support. This is just one data point, but in the Reuters poll documented above, his intra-party support fell 9ppt WoW through last Sunday, to a still high 73%.
In the final read on University of Michigan sentiment for September, released on Friday, survey director Joanne Hsu noted that while this month’s interviews “reveal[ed] broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year,” sentiment among Republicans evidenced “particularly large declines” this month.
The figure above, from the Michigan data, shows the drop-off in expectations by party identification versus the beginning of Trump’s second term. It’s largest for Independents and Republicans.
Obviously, the larger decline in part reflects the fact that sentiment among Democrats didn’t have as far to fall, but it’s nevertheless bad news for the GOP that the voters they need are far less optimistic about the economic outlook than they were before the war. After all, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
In the same editorial cited above, Hsu offered a disconcerting explanation for an ostensible “improvement” in perceptions of current buying conditions for durable goods. Households, she said, increasingly believe that “completing such purchases now [will] help avoid higher prices in the future.” That’s the demand pull-forward effect. And that’s the stuff runaway inflation’s made of.
If you’re wondering whether Trump’s worried about any of this, the answer’s not really. Or not publicly. On Thursday, while perpetuating another bitter dispute with the press, Trump described himself as “a man whose Popularity has grown because of the unprecedented SUCCESS our Country is having on both the World Stage and at home.”




