I haven’t checked Donald Trump’s TruthSocial feed on Wednesday, and inshallah I won’t have to, but my guess is he’s not talking about mortgage rates.
Or if he is, he’s blaming someone else for the highest home financing costs since late 2023. (When you’re Trump, the buck only “stops here” if the news is good.)
Wednesday’s MBA update showed the average 30-year fixed rose another 18bps last week to 7.30%, as Treasury yields trekked ever higher.
The purchase index (inverted on the left axis) was the lowest since “Liberation Day.”
I don’t think I’m making a partisan statement to call this an unmitigated disaster. Not that anyone needs a reminder, but in the earliest days of Trump’s second term, Scott Bessent said he was resolved to bring down 10-year yields such that borrowing costs for American families would be more forgiving. That was an explicit policy promise.
Fast forward 19 months and 10-year Treasury yields are the highest in decades. As a consequence, mortgage rates are the most onerous since Bessent’s predecessor was in the process of placating an irritable bond market by tipping an end to coupon auction size increases. Bessent, having failed miserably to cap yields with upsized bond buybacks, is very likely to use the November QRA to telegraph actual cuts to coupon sales. (History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.)
This week’s increase on the MBA mortgage rate index was the sixth in a row and the third straight double-digit basis point advance.
The figure above gives you some context for the move, which sums to 53bps (!) since mid-August.
Refis were down by more than half versus the same period a year ago and plunged 9% versus the prior week. Notably, the rate on five-year adjustable mortgages rose almost 40bps near 6.50%. ARMs’ share of overall volume was more than 10%, the most in a year.
There was no respite early this week. According to Mortgage News Daily’s more timely tracker, rates were nearly 7.6% on Tuesday.
I have a CD that matures 10/1. Fidelity set it to auto roll at 4.35% last week which I cancelled, this week I’m looking at 4.55%. That’s a big jump in 5 days. I think I might slow walk the renewal at this point
I saw 2-year CDs paying 4.8% just yesterday at one of Fidelity’s competitors. Hint: the name rhymes with “car fob,” and as usual, this is not investing advice (perform your own due diligence, etc, etc.)
Please don’t use “inshallah” out loud down South. I’d fear for your safety if you did.
First you would have to run accross someone who understood it …
Ironically, “Inshallah” is one of the greatest songs the deep south’s ever produced: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKSjCeQq1EY&list=RDBKSjCeQq1EY&start_radio=1
That whole album — Still Standing — is immaculate. An under-appreciated classic from that era.
Not what I expected…. my northern bias had me ready for something twangy. They have a great vibe.
Most of the people who would react negatively in the deep south to the word inshallah probably would never have listened to that song. Would not have gotten past the first stanza without emotional overload.
You have broadened my understanding of subcultures in the USA. Thanks for that. Truly enlightening.
As an educated engineer white guy with white hair I can use the word Inshallah all accross the usa. Combination of cultural priviledge and knowing how to soften the shock.
Given how frequently we invade Middle Eastern countries, I’ll bet there’s a lot of folks down here who know what inshallah means.