bitcoin crypto

Bitcoin Surges Above $8,000 As Stupidity Goes Parabolic

To be sure, it's impossible to know when something like this will finally succumb to reality, but these kinds of things are vulnerable to crises of confidence and in the absence of any kind of fundamental thesis to fall back on, it won't be immediately clear where the "bottom" is when Wile E. Coyote finally looks down.

To be sure, it's impossible to know when something like this will finally succumb to reality, but these kinds of things are vulnerable to crises of confidence and in the absence of any kind of fundamental thesis to fall back on, it won't be immediately clear where the "bottom" is when Wile E. Coyote finally looks down.
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28 comments on “Bitcoin Surges Above $8,000 As Stupidity Goes Parabolic

  1. One major flaw with most of your analysis is due to the fact that you ignore a simple premise: Bitcoin is still in its infancy

  2. Look how butthurt you are that you didn’t get in when bitcoin was only in the triple digits. XD

    • hey folks: witness “Exhibit A.”

      that comment right there gives you an idea of the type of people who are driving this thing. these are not rational actors. and just as they aren’t rational on the way up, they won’t be rational on the way down.

  3. jenn 詹妮弗 bunny

    $8k … me likey likey likey ;.

  4. As an early adopter I was never expecting things to escalate this quickly. However, like the dr123 said it is in its infancy. As I frown at the charts, I still just don’t see this going away, even when if there is a massive crash due to some terrible news. What once were conspiracy theories about manipulated monetary policy has just started entering the mainstream. The agenda is mass adoption which will take a while. If this happens Bitcoin (or another coin) will finally be a usable currency.

    After the dotcom bubble burst many companies were taken out but some survived and are now flourishing. The same will happen once the crypto bubble pops. It takes only one (or a few) surviving currencies to mold the future.

    • Amen to that. Bitcoin right now appears to be the runaway leader to be the first mass-adopted “digital currency” or “digital store of value” or both. The only question in my mind is whether governments will therefore primarily target Bitcoin when they feel threatened, and how successful that targeting will be. Secondarily, I question whether there is enough computing power around the world to validate the blockchain if Bitcoin is mass-adopted and transactions increase exponentially in volume.

      Heisy, I know we disagree on this subject. That’s cool. But I would like to hear your perspective on the increasing evidence of adoption worldwide, such as CME futures, Amazon, Paypal, Japan’s legalization as a currency, etc.

      Do any of these developments give you pause and make you question your thesis? If not, what could happen for you to change your view?

      Rudy

  5. as a reminder, there is nothing wrong with getting rich trading Bitcoin.

    the mistake comes in assuming that it is viable as a currency or as “money.” It’s not. The technology is viable but the notion that central banks are going to let this persist in perpetuity without co-opting it is a fantasy. As is the idea that governments are ever going to let this thing explode to a million dollars.

    that’s just not how shit works. there is no chance that the government is going to watch something like this rise to a million and then allow people to covert those coins into a million dollars. It’s just not going to happen.

    additionally, the adoption by institutional investors and blue chip banks will create a two-way market for this and what you’ll get is stupid people being picked off left and right by actual prop desks and algos. it will turn into a bloodbath.

    • jenn 詹妮弗 bunny

      True for that last point. Just like what has happened to gold since they securitized it. But shit changes and water ultimately finds its own level, so at the end of the day it’ll be the dollar worth zero, not gold nor btc.

      But I think you overestimate the power of government. The golden age of central banks shall pass.

      And if bitcoin can be exchanged for for yen, offshore renminbi (cny), HKD, SGD, then it can also be exchanged for dollars, at least indirectly. Short of the US banning convertibility of dollars, which IMO would be financial suicide and impossible to enforce given the massive size of the eurodollar market (ie., dollar deposits outside the US) completely beyond US jurisdiction & regulatory reach.

  6. Again, what could possibly happen to make you change your mind? Or are you totally intransigent on this subject?

    • jenn 詹妮弗 bunny

      I’m not “heisy” but I think the answer is, when he realizes that for girls nowadays it’s the boy with the bitcoin who’s always Mr Right… lol

    • Rudy I appreciate your honest efforts to understand this, but I wonder if you are truly considering the arguments.

      for instance, I know you read the Peterffy letter to the CFTC because you commented on the article. did you internalize it? if they clear that thing with everything else it will end up crashing the market.

      there isn’t any way this is going to be allowed to go on in perpetuity. something horrible is going to happen with this. it’s inevitable. and when it does, they will ban it. and even if they don’t, the mere discussion of banning it will be enough to collapse it.

      you’re not thinking about this rationally and what happens when people get stuck in an irrational trade like this is that they lose the ability to have perspective. which is why a lot of people end up worth millions on paper but then lose it all: because the thesis becomes more important than the gains. so they stick to the thesis even when they could have cashed out with a fortune.

      i’ve seen this over, and over, and over, and over.

      if what you want to say is that the technology will eventually find its way into some truly innovative, world-changing applications including money, well then that’s fine and you may be more right than even you know.

      but the premise that Bitcoin itself is going to be the future of money is laughable. it won’t happen. it’s not money. it doesn’t meet any of the criteria of money. it’s not backed by tax revenue. it fluctuates wildly. it’s not a reliable store of value. it’s not widely accepted. it’s under government scrutiny. and on and on.

      you are persisting in a fantasy. can you get rich on that fantasy in the interim? of course you can. and more power to you in that regard.

      but what you are saying in terms of the extent to which it is actual money doesn’t make any sense.

      • Thank you for your reply and for writing as often as you do, on this and many other subjects.

        • there is one caveat to this.

          if you are bigger than the market, then you can take something that isn’t real and make it work in perpetuity.

          a great example is Carl Icahn and Herbalife. Herbalife isn’t real. it’s a ponzi scheme. there’s no question about it.

          but Icahn was too big a fish for Ackman and between his regulatory pull and his money, Icahn was able to effectively suspend reality indefinitely.

          eventually, reality will catch up to Herbalife, but by that time, Ackman will have (hopefully for his sake) given up and Icahn will be long gone.

  7. Actually, H is more informed than all the commenters comments lack of factual basis combined. How do I know this? Because there are well analyzed, well quantified and well grounded fact based and unbiased explanations of the limits and the myths behind BitCoin, which H has obviously read.

    Probably the most astounding and informative fact is that BitCoin’s supposed rapid growth and adoption – in reality is only supported by less than 2-5% actual commerce transactions – this means that the other 95% on exchanges represent speculators and or an estimated 20% illicit transactions.

    Additionally, you should be aware that only a minor percentage of BitCoin transactions actually use blockchain, the others are off-chain transactions – meaning without blockchain technology and or security advantages. Why, because the BitCoin throughput of exchanges are physically limited by the slowness of its blockchain process. Not that most of you would care – because you are so busy taking in each others “BitCoin” laundry at ever higher prices – but Bitcoin blockchain security is also outed as a myth – just as its purported anonymity has been.

    (“Based on exchange transactions, which exceed blockchain-committed transactions because of off-chain transactions, then actual commerce usage would represent 2.9-5.5% of all (exchange+payment processor) transactions.”).

    Additionally it means “As a result of these numbers we can say all Bitcoin payment processing represents:

    – Less than 0.1% of the payment transactions handled by PayPal.
    = (Which is) 0.5-0.7% of the payment volume handled by PayPal.

    (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122695-bitcoin-series-2-usage)

    The list of disconnects between BitCoin and realistic potentials as currency are quite damning and quite long. So, much for BitCoin becoming an actual legal currency.

    Though I have never met the man, Paulo Santos is an absolutely great researcher – that assessment coming from a professional with four decades or paid R&D experience. Santos’s earlier dissections of Tesla as investment black hole have provent to be spot on. If you have any interest in the future of cryptocurrency – in a reality based world, you really should read his seven part series on BitCoin’s pros, cons and cryptocurrency future. Educate yourself rather than flouting your ignorance on the subject.

    • Durwood,

      I’ve read Paulo’s articles. Like you said, well researched and thought-out. That doesn’t mean I agreed with the conclusions.

      For example, the comparison of Bitcoin as a digital ledger to the Paypal universe as a digital ledger was laughable, in my view. PayPal transacts in dollars and presumably other fiat currencies, whereas Bitcoin transacts with itself and has the potential to become a self-enclosed system.

      The point that renders Paulo’s comparison impotent is that Bitcoin is limited to 21 million units versus fiat currencies that are unlimited and growing rapidly in number. Combine this with government’s inability to spend responsibly, forcing them eventually to print more, and you have all you need to know in order to understand the “store of value” argument. Simple.

      There is only one reason I would ever sell my 1% allocation to Bitcoin. You know what that is? If the number of potential units increased from 21 million to some higher number. I dont care what that number is, let’s say it’s 21,000,001. If the Bitcoin network all of a sudden agreed that the number of units could be increased arbitrarily, well, then THAT would be a true death-knell for this thing.

      If that happened, Paulo’s comparison would be apples-to-apples, rather than apples-to-…..oh, I dont know, Heisenbergs!

    • jenn 詹妮弗 bunny

      “Probably the most astounding and informative fact is that BitCoin’s supposed rapid growth and adoption – in reality is only supported by less than 2-5% actual commerce transactions – this means that the other 95% on exchanges represent speculators”

      More than $4-trillion of dollars are traded daily on average (speculation), and in comparison, actual commercial dollar transactions are only a small percentage. So it’s no different for dollars than bitcoin. But are dollars money?

      I’m just a (fairly decent) trader, not qualified to wane philosophical on whether bitcoin is money.
      But historically, many assets have functioned as a currency: bronze objects, rice, seashells, gold/silver/copper coins, real estate shares (germany), even cigarettes (in prison). Why not btc?

      But the question is, why have some brilliant and rich people bought into bitcoin if it’s just some ponzi scheme?? Fools and their money are soon parted, and those folks aren’t fools.

  8. The supposed “scarcity” aspect of BitCoin is also a myth – as BitCoin Cash, other current and coming fork attempts have proven. I too hold a small amount of BitCoin that I purchased in Dec. of last year. Actually, it’s the left overs of Chinese transaction I made. Leftovers because there was no way of knowing the if the BitCoins I had at any specific time would cover my purchase. As it turns out the leftovers are now worth the same amount of the transaction I made – at 10x the Dec. 16 rate. I’m not unhappy about this totally coincidental increase in value – however, it doesn’t change the fact it took almost two weeks of my time to complete this transaction, there was zero anonymity (a big thing touted at that time), there was zero recourse in the transaction if the merchant (who I had made cash transactions in the past) proved unreliable, and the transaction was extremely expensive – even though the respective merchant gave me a 7% discount for using BitCoin. At that time China represented 92% of all BitCoin transactions, whereas today China represents less than 60% and declining as China cracks down on cryptocurrency.

    In summary, my experience with BitCoin was a monumental pain in the ass compared to PayPal, or credit card, or even a wire transfer (which I thought at the time might be too time consuming and expensive – totally wrong on that call) and which now only causes me to lean in to the point that BitCoin commerce transactions is less than 5% – which also makes the myth of currency like adoption and usage a total myth. Had I known that my transaction was likely conducted off-chain, I would not have made it all. BitCoin is the financial equivalent of most other “collection” manias – be it tulips and or Cabbage Patch Dolls. Whether it dies tomorrow or a year from now it will have zero impact on real currency or blockchain technology application development. Enjoy the ride of the BitCoin upside while you can, but don’t say you weren’t adequately and repeatedly warned about the coming increased downside. The biggest downside will be the replacement of private cryptocurrency blockchain technology by corporate finance and banking blockchain applications that will make the private cryptos superfluous and assure that wide spread commercial adoption never happens.

    • I think you settled the debate, Durwood. You own Bitcoin. I’m not here saying Bitcoin WILL BE mass-adopted. I’m saying that I believe there is a probability greater than 0% that that will happen. And you apparently agree. Actions (or lack thereof, in your case) speak louder than words.

  9. When you come asking if or when is a good time to buy, the answer is: Buy now, always Hodl in FUD times (Bitcoin has “died” many times, but Moneybadger don’t care, buy the dips and never panic-sell, stuff like: “China ban Bitcoin…again!” will keep happening again and again.

    Here’s Bitcoin’s response to Jamie Dimon. Stick to the real Bitcoin through all the ‘forks’ and ‘splits’ that accomplish nothing but new mediocre, unsafe and centralized altcoins, strengthen/immunize Bitcoin and give you free altcoins to buy more Bitcoin.

    All Central Powers look silly trying to control or ban it. Learn from history and listen to this absolute Boss. There will never be enough Bitcoin for every existing millionaire to own just ONE SINGLE BITCOIN, Total number of millionaires (in USD value) worldwide is around 33 million. BTC is the best money.

    Also relax, you are actually an early adopter if you start investing today, mentally prepare yourself for healthy and expected market volatility/dips/corrections/”crashes” and remember all this:

    Follow this basic rules of Bitcoin:

    Never try to time the market. Dollar cost average by buying what you can afford to lose every week.
    Once Bitcoin in wallet—>HODL! (never panic-sell), if the price goes down, buy the dips.
    Never, ever, short Bitcoin.

    It is always a good time to buy Bitcoin if you are hodling long term and not just for day trading, so this is a great strategy. Remember that Bitcoin has practically been up most of the time, and the road to the moon is paved with minor corrections (Bitcoin is never really “down” when you zoom-out).

    _________________________

    Everybody parroting: “The bitcoin bubble is about to pop” since 2009, don’t know that bitcoin is a decentralized system with mathematically fixed, deflationary and limited supply currency and its growth is exponential, not linear.

    So is not farfetched to say that it will be at 100,000 by 2020, since it came from less than $1 to $5,000 in less than 10 years, and it hasn’t even hit the bottom part of the exponential ‘S-Curve’ of adoption. Check out the great 2017 MIT study: “The Cryptocurrency Market Is Growing Exponentially”. Patience pays, don’t listen to the “Expert Analysts on MSM”.

    _________________________

    Bitcoin is a Moneybadger that get’s stronger and immunized with every new attack and this broad picture of its price since infancy (1 year candles on a logarithmic scale) shows Bitcoin growth is not a “bubble” but it’s exponential (bigger “bubbles” every time), this old logarithmic scale has been accurate so far.

    Learn the difference between Inflation (dollar) and Deflation (Bitcoin) and just take a look at the fiat >20 trillion (and growing fast) debt clock to get a visual shock of unlimited fiat supply (vs limited Bitcoin/Gold supply).

    _________________________

    Bitcoin has outperformed every other currency, commodity, stock and asset since its inception in 2009: “2017: Bitcoin Beats Stocks, Bonds, And Gold, Again”. Bitcoin, the Moneybadger, is the first unseizable store of value in human history, unlike gold, equities, or fiat, it can’t be confiscated if stored correctly.

    _________________________

    Also, remember its fixed, limited supply of 21 million coins ever, there are just ~4.5 million (~20%) bitcoins left to be mined till 2140 and the production will keep decreasing (“halving”) every 4 years till then. So, remember this and don’t wait for the Bitcoin “bubble” to burst or for the price to drop significantly again, because you could be waiting forever:

    “The best time to buy bitcoin was in 2009…”.

    Don’t be —-> this guy

    Next stop $100,000 #tothemoon #hodl

  10. Hey Heisy, you gotta watch this, pretty informative on Bitcoin from a knowledgeable guy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNssKmeXrGs

    Rudy

    • “This week on the VICE Podcast, Reihan Salam sits down with Jerry Brito, one of the leading experts on Bitcoin. Jerry is a senior research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center and director of its Technology Policy Program. His research focuses on internet policy, copyright, and the regulatory process. Jerry was kind enough to walk us through the world of Bitcoin, the first decentralized digital currency that now has a few imitators.”

  11. It would be good to read an article that broadens the concept of Ponzi scheme to a whole bunch of “asset classes”. Heisenberg could do a stellar job at that. Maybe a FED governor would comment.
    There is also a technological mess forming with this sector. The whole thing could be undermined just like a corner shooter takes your oil. The comprehension per dollar invested is quite low. The same is true with many derivatives, including ETFs. So the issue applies in many places.

    • > “It would be good to read an article that broadens the concept of Ponzi scheme to a whole bunch of “asset classes”. Maybe a FED governor would comment.”

      Well, a former Dallas Fed one just wrote about how she believes under Powell the Fed will target (runaway) asset price inflation rather than just the supposedly low consumer price inflation as they do now, and this coming change isn’t on the ponzi markets’ radar yet. I’ll believe the change when I see it, but she is a powerful, credible writer having come out from behind the curtain. Writes as good or maybe even better than heisenberg (if that’s possible?). Her opuses are usually sub-only but now here is one:

      https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/destination-reformation/

    • > “It would be good to read an article that broadens the concept of Ponzi scheme to a whole bunch of “asset classes”. Maybe a FED governor would comment.”

      Well, a former Dallas Fed one just wrote about how she believes under Powell the Fed will target (runaway) asset price inflation rather than just the supposedly low consumer price inflation as they do now, and this coming change isn’t on the ponzi markets’ radar yet. I’ll believe the change when I see it, but she is a powerful, credible writer having come out from behind the curtain. Writes as good or maybe even better than heisenberg (if that’s possible?). Her opuses are usually sub-only but now here is one:

      https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/destination-reformation/

    • Apologies for the duplicate posts… bunny is my member name and irb was my old pen name before registering (shorthand for infra red bot, or maybe infra red bunny?).
      Please may delete a duplicate at your discretion, thanks.

      詹妮弗 (jennifer)

  12. P.S. Admin Note: My last wordpress account here disappeared when I tried to add a photo; it was a small gif. The gif never took, wordpress hung, the userid became inaccessible. I could/did re-register using the same email addy as before, weird.

    詹妮弗 / jenn

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