‘So They’ll Bleed’: Here Are The Winners And Losers From Trump’s ‘Middle Class’ Tax Cut

Donald Trump built his entire career on lies. The myth of Trump the legendary businessman is just that – a myth. Everyone knows that and the evidence to support that contention is so voluminous that documenting it is its own cottage industry.

Similarly, Trump’s campaign was built entirely on far-fetched promises the character of which was so nebulous as to make it virtually impossible for anyone to say definitively if he had or hadn’t kept them – at least in the near-term.

The problem for Trump and now for the GOP is that intermingled with the bombast and delusions of grandeur were some actual concrete proposals that could only be construed one way. For instance, you cannot say you “repealed and replaced” Obamacare when you did neither. Similarly, you can’t say you cut taxes when you simply didn’t.

Trump hasn’t given up entirely on the Obamacare crusade. Indeed, he’s now resorted to deliberately undermining the nation’s insurance system just so he can have some claim to not giving up on the push to destroy his predecessor’s legacy on healthcare. In the same vein, the individual mandate debate has now found itself thrown in with the tax overhaul.

But the bottom line is that “repeal and replace” didn’t work and so now, Trump and the GOP are behind the eight ball. If they don’t push this tax plan through by the end of the year, well then they will have failed to log any major legislative accomplishments in 2018, a decidedly bad situation to be in ahead of midterms and a testament to the idea that far from being God’s gift to dealmaking, Trump couldn’t “deal” his way out of a wet paper bag.

But as Paul Krugman wrote a couple of days ago, Republicans might have already thrown in the towel in the wake of recent electoral setbacks and the fast-motion train wreck in Alabama. Desperation has effectively set Republicans free. Here’s Krugman:

I’d suggest many Republicans now see themselves and/or their party in such dire straits that they’re no longer even trying to improve their future electoral position; instead, it’s all about grabbing as much for their big donors while they still can. Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose; in the GOP’s case, that means the freedom to be the party of, by, and for oligarchs they always wanted to be.

Right, and the tax plan is a manifestation of that. Over and over again, economists and nonpartisan analysis have shown that this tax plan is an unmitigated disaster. Consider this from David Leonhardt for the New York Times:

The actual bill that the House passed last week — and the modestly different plan the Senate is considering — is a dreadful piece of policy. It would cause the deficit to soar and, as a result, probably reduce economic growth. It would also raise taxes for millions of middle-class families.

Taxes

“The G.O.P.,” Henry Olsen, a conservative policy expert, recently said, “really wants to do nothing other than cut taxes for businesspeople and the top bracket based on what can only be called religious devotion to supply-side theory.”

Once Republican leaders filled their plan with tax cuts for the wealthy, they didn’t have much money left for the middle class. In the Senate, Republicans were so desperate to find money that this past week they released a new version of the bill that made virtually all of the middle-class tax cuts temporary. They expire before the bill’s final year, 2027.

An assortment of middle-class tax increases — again, to help cover the cost of the tax cuts for the wealthy — last for the full life of the Senate bill. As a result, it ends up being a tax increase on households making less than $75,000, according to the only rigorous analysis so far, by the Senate’s Joint Committee on Taxation. For families making somewhat more than $75,000, the tax cut is modest and likely temporary, given the deficit. The plan, says Martin Sullivan, chief economist at Tax Analysts, a highly regarded research group, has “stunningly meager tax benefits for middle class.”

In short, the GOP and Trump (assuming Trump actually understands any of this which is a possibly dubious assumption to make) are lying to you. Here’s the Associated Press documenting the winners and losers from the Senate proposal:

WINNERS

  • Wealthy individuals and their heirs win big. The hottest class-warfare debate around the tax overhaul legislation involves the inheritance tax on multimillion-dollar estates. Democrats wave the legislation’s targeting of the tax as a red flag in the face of Republicans, as proof that they’re out to benefit wealthy donors. The House bill initially doubles the limits — to $11 million for individuals and $22 million for couples — on how much money in the estate can be exempted from the inheritance tax, then repeals it entirely after 2023. The Senate version also doubles the limits but doesn’t repeal the tax. Then there’s the alternative minimum tax, a levy aimed at ensuring that higher-earning people pay at least some tax. It disappears in both bills.
  • And the House measure cuts tax rates for many of the millions of “pass-through” businesses big and small — including partnerships and specially organized corporations — whose profits are taxed at the owners’ personal income rate. That’s potential cha-ching for Trump’s far-flung property empire and the holdings of his daughter Ivanka and her husband, Jared Kushner. The Senate bill lets pass-through owners deduct some of the earnings and then pay at their personal income rate on the remainder.
  • Corporations win all around, with a tax rate slashed from 35 percent to 20 percent in both bills — though they’d have to wait a year for it under the Senate measure. Trump and the administration view it as an untouchable centerpiece of the legislation.
  • U.S. oil companies with foreign operations would pay reduced taxes under the Senate bill on their income from sales of oil and natural gas abroad.
  • Beer, wine and liquor producers would reap tax reductions under the Senate measure.
  • Companies that provide management services like maintenance for aircraft get an updated win. The Senate bill clarifies that under current law, the management companies would be exempt from paying taxes on payments they receive from owners of private jets as well as from commercial airlines. That was a request from Ohio Sens. Rob Portman, a Republican, and Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, whose state is home to NetJets, a big aircraft management company.

LOSERS

  • An estimated 13 million Americans could lose health insurance coverage under the Senate bill, which would repeal the “Obamacare” requirement that everyone in the U.S. have health insurance. The projection comes from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Eliminating the fines is expected to mean fewer people would obtain federally subsidized health policies.
  • People living in high-tax states would be hit by repeal of federal deductions for state and local taxes under the Senate bill, and partial repeal under the House measure. That result of a compromise allows the deduction for up to $10,000 in property taxes.
  • Many families making less than $30,000 a year would face tax increases starting in 2021 under the Senate bill, according to Congress’ nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation. By 2027, families earning less than $75,000 would see their tax bills rise while those making more would enjoy reductions, the analysts find. The individual income-tax reductions in the Senate bill would end in 2026.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but this is fucking egregious. Just read those bolded bits again one right after another. It’s the exact opposite of what Trump and the GOP are claiming it is.

They have the numbers and they are simply asking you this: “who you gonna believe, me or these lyin’ numbers?”

And you know what? It won’t matter. Because if large swaths of the U.S. electorate can be duped into thinking a narcissistic billionaire is just the man for the job when it comes to taking on billionaires and restoring some bygone era of American Middle Class prosperity, well then the chances of them actually reading and comprehending the details of this bill are slim to none.

So those voters will bleed. They’ll bleed money while GOP donors and people like Trump get richer, they’ll bleed jobs as we learn yet again that “trickle down” never works, and they’ll bleed literally when 13 million of them lose their health insurance.

Here you go America – this is what “draining the swamp” looks like…

linton

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20 thoughts on “‘So They’ll Bleed’: Here Are The Winners And Losers From Trump’s ‘Middle Class’ Tax Cut

  1. Since the Republicans are desperate to pass any form of tax bill, it will be interesting to see what bribes are offered to Republican Senate holdouts who are expressing doubts about it. The ones most susceptible to bribing are Johnson, Murkowski and Collins. Corker, Flake and McCain have no incentive to be bribed, so let’s see how strong-backed they remain.

  2. couple of thoughts…I think she wears those black gloves in this snotty photo shoot because she hides hideous hands with fingernails bitten to the quick.

    Far more important are my thoughts of a president who sits on his throne and lies to the citizens of America. Lying to win the election is a seriously rotten way to start his “service” to America especially when each step he takes every day for a year now has been to damage or destroy a little piece. I was glad to hear he backed down from killing more elephants but based on everything else he has done, I am suspicious as to what he was doing behind the scenes.

    So, what can we do to a sitting president who knowingly lies to the people of America? As kids, we are taught there are consequences and punishment for telling lies. Those lessons of life continue as an adult under employment with companies. A criminal suspect caught in a lie, could end up in much worse trouble. If a person lies under oath at a federal level, serious jail time! So please tell me why a President can lie every day and he is not subject to consequences with punishment? Many of these lies cause damage to individuals and their families. These lies keep “his base” committed to supporting him, sometimes to an extreme and frightening behavior that divides the citizens. Even worse, his Party Politicians all know he is lying but they are so addicted to the rewards they may get if they just keep their mouths shut, all the way to the bank!

    Once this pinhead prick is removed from the Oval Office, I would suggest while we are changing the rules based on lessons this jackass has taught us about the damage done by seating a president who has no morals, no integrity and no respect. Try this, a President who knowingly lies to the citizens of America will be charged for felony lying and removed from Office. This jackass would not have made it through one day; January 21 and he is out of office. (Felony: an offense of graver character than those called misdemeanors, especially those commonly punished in the U.S. by imprisonment for more than a year. Early English Law: any crime punishable by death or mutilation and forfeiture of lands and goods)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/11/14/president-trump-has-made-1628-false-or-misleading-claims-over-298-days/?utm_term=.e15142569d68

  3. “And you know what? It won’t matter. Because if large swaths of the U.S. electorate can be duped into thinking a narcissistic billionaire is just the man for the job when it comes to taking on billionaires and restoring some bygone era of American Middle Class prosperity, well then the chances of them actually reading and comprehending the details of this bill are slim to none.

    “So those voters will bleed. They’ll bleed money while GOP donors and people like Trump get richer, they’ll bleed jobs as we learn yet again that “trickle down” never works, and they’ll bleed literally when 13 million of them lose their health insurance.”

    Definitely!!

    It’s why Trump proudly bellowed “I love the poorly educated,” and why the Republicans have worked so damn hard these last three to four decades to do whatever they could to deprive Americans from having a decent education from college on down to kindegarten, to include abolishing the Department of Education
    (for reasons that make your skin crawl: https://www.conservativereview.com/articles/5-smart-reasons-to-abolish-the-department-of-education).

    Republicans have always been and remain full of crap.

    Balanced budgets? Give me break. Gimmicks: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/17/us/politics/accounting-manuevers-republican-tax-overhaul.html

    The Holier Tahn Thou Crowd of “Law and Order. Hahahhaha!!:Give me a break (as you read this, where it touches upon those that were part of the Executive branch, keep in mind that not a single member of Obama’s adminstration was arrested or convicted of a crime):

    Since this is the season: Catalina Vasquez Villalpando, Treasurer of the United States, pleaded guilty to TAX EVASION and obstruction of justice. Imagine!!

    Then we have Moore (evidence of being a pedafile and sexual predator) and serial child molster and Former Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert, Flynn, Flynn, Jr., Trump, Nixon, Manafort, Gates, Papadopoulos, Carter, Sessions, Congressman Michael Grimm (pleaded guilty of felony tax evasion), Congressman Trey Radel (cocaine possession), Rick Renzi guilty of 17 counts of wire fraud, conspiracy, extortion, racketeering and money laundering; Lewis Libby, Chief of Staff to Vice President Dick Cheney who was convicted of perjury and obstruction of justice in the Plame Affair; Lester Crawford, Commissioner of FDA, resigned after 2 months and pled guilty to conflict of interest and received 3 years suspended sentence; Claude Allen, Director of the Domestic Policy Council, was arrested for felony thefts and convicted on one count; Duke Cunningham pleaded guilty to charges of conspiracy to commit bribery, mail fraud, wire fraud and tax evasion in what came to be called the Cunningham scandal and was sentenced to over eight years in prison; Bob Packwood;19 women accused him of sexual misconduct and the US Senate Ethics Committee found him guilty of a “pattern of abuse of his position of power and authority” and recommended that he be expelled from the Senate.

    And let’s not forget the No-Law and Disorder adminstration of Reagan:

    Michael Deaver, Reagan’s Chief of Staff, was convicted of lying to both a congressional committee and to a federal grand jury about his lobbying activities after he left the government. He received three years probation and was fined $100,000 after being convicted for lying to a congressional subcommittee; Caspar Weinberger, United States Secretary of Defense, indicted on two counts of perjury and one count of obstruction and pardoned by H.W. Bush; Elliott Abrams agreed to cooperate and allowed to plead guilty to two misdemeanor charges instead; National Security Advisor Robert C. McFarlane, pleaded guilty to four misdemeanors; Alan D. Fiers was the Chief of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Central American Task Force who pleaded guilty in 1991 to two counts of withholding information from Congress and was sentenced to one year of probation; Richard R. Miller – Partner with Oliver North in IBC, an Office of Public Diplomacy front group, convicted of conspiracy to defraud the United States; Clair George was Chief of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Division of Covert Operations under President Reagan, was convicted of lying to two congressional committees in 1986; Richard Secord was indicted on nine felony counts of lying to Congress and pleaded guilty to a felony charge of lying to Congress; Thomas G. Clines was convicted of four counts of tax-related offenses for failing to report income from the Iran/Contra operations; Carl R. Channel – Office of Public Diplomacy, partner in International Business- first person convicted in the Iran/Contra scandal, pleaded guilty of one count of defrauding the United States; John Poindexter, Reagan’s national security advisor, was found guilty of five criminal counts including lying to Congress, conspiracy and obstruction of justice. His conviction was later overturned on grounds that he did not receive a fair trial (the prosecution may have been influenced by his immunized testimony in front of Congress; Oliver North was indicted on sixteen charges in the Iran–Contra affair and found guilty of three – aiding and abetting obstruction of Congress, shredding or altering official documents and accepting a gratuity. His convictions were later overturned on the grounds that his immunized testimony had tainted his trial; Duane R. Clarridge also pardoned before trial by Bush Albert Hakim pleaded guilty to supplementing the salary of North Joseph F. Fernandez indicted on four counts of obstruction and false statements; case dismissed when Attorney General Richard L. Thornburgh refused to declassify information needed for his defense; James Watt, Reagan’s Secretary of the Interior was indicted on 24 felony counts and pleaded guilty to a single misdemeanor. He was sentenced to five years probation, and ordered to pay a $5000 fine; Phillip D. Winn – Assistant HUD Secretary. Pleaded guilty to one count of scheming to give illegal gratuities; Thomas Demery – Assistant HUD Secretary – pleaded guilty to steering HUD subsidies to politically connected donors. Found guilty of bribery and obstruction of justice; Deborah Gore Dean – executive assistant to Secretary Pierce – indicted on thirteen counts, three counts of conspiracy, one count of accepting an illegal gratuity, four counts of perjury, and five counts of concealing articles. She was convicted on twelve. She appealed and prevailed on several counts but the convictions for conspiracy remained; Joseph A. Strauss, Special Assistant to the Secretary of HUD, convicted for accepting payments to favor Puerto Rican land developers in receiving HUD funding; Silvio D. DeBartolomeis convicted of perjury and bribery; Melvyn Paisley, appointed Assistant Secretary of the Navy in 1981 by Republican President Ronald Reagan, was found to have accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes. He pleaded guilty to bribery and served four years in prison; James E. Gaines, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy, took over when Paisley resigned his office, Gaines was convicted of accepting an illegal gratuity and theft and conversion of government property, sentenced to six months in prison; Victor D. Cohen, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force, pleaded guilty to accepting bribes and conspiring to defraud the government; Wedtech scandal: Wedtech Corporation convicted of bribery for Defense Department contracts; Edwin Meese Attorney General, resigned but never convicted; Lyn Nofziger White House Press Secretary, whose conviction of lobbying was overturned; Mario Biaggi sentenced to 2½ years; Robert García sentenced to 2½ years.

    Need I go on?

    • NO PLEASE STOP! I had to take a break half way thru and take a blood pressure pill. About 15 min. later I finished reading all those names and their corruption with deep abhorrence of all politicians! Those that committed these crimes and the others who knew about them and kept silent!

      When I came across Bob Packwood’s name I was reminded I skimmed through a WaPo article about a week ago so I took a few minutes to find it, and actually read it again, without skimming it this time. And then I had to take another break since I cannot take another pill right now. I am going to paste the link at the bottom so you all can read about how many knew about his “skirt problem” and kept silent. He resigned in ’95 ONLY because the Ethics Committee had voted unanimously to remove him from the Senate. You will read that Trump is the reason all this type of behavior is no longer being swept under the rug; his alleged sexual misbehavior with so many women and yet, he was still elected as President. Ironic that he brought all this to light and so far he is walking free from it?! BTW, anyone know if this position was refilled since July 19, 2017, Office of Government Ethics Director, when Walter Shaub Jr. resigned? https://www.npr.org/2017/07/06/535781749/ethics-office-director-walter-shaub-resigns-saying-rules-need-to-be-tougher

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/why-politicians-got-away-with-sexual-misconduct-for-so-long/2017/11/10/4bb1ecc6-c4d8-11e7-aae0-cb18a8c29c65_story.html?utm_term=.7224941e233b

      And only to be fair to Anita Hill (I still believe her) so she will not feel forgotten or less important as we look back over all the creeps Marty mentioned, let’s not forget about Clarence Thomas, 1991, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States.

  4. As expected, the GOP does what it does best: increase the deficit, give tax breaks to those who need it less, and screw everyone else. When the tsunami comes, and I truly believe it will come, we can do our own version of tax reform and simplification. When Sean Hannity (a more punch-able face I’ve never seen) and the rest of the FOX news toadies start complaining that this is class warfare, and how dare they, and boohoo us, we can all just exclaim “Damn right it is! Bite me!”

    As disgusted as I am, the Dems first order of business (after sticking it to the rich) should be a move to public funding of all elections and making lobbying a criminal offense. Time to get back to “one man, one vote” and government for and by the people. A utopian dream I know, but hey, why not dream.

    • Dan! I am dreaming your dream!

      “public funding of all elections and making lobbying a criminal offense. Time to get back to “one man, one vote” and government for and by the people.”

    • take a breath…it has not passed yet. I would not say that “nobody cares” but I would guess that people who live in states that have a state tax care the most.

  5. So strange how things come up — I was at my keyboard to shut this thing down for the night – I have made too many comments all over this blog today! And I notice a new article just dropped…and the subject is uncanny.

    During the 2016 Republican presidential primaries, Ralph Shortey was an early endorser of Donald Trump, and served as a county coordinator for his campaign. Senator, Oklahoma, Republican.

    http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/state/former-state-sen-ralph-shortey-agrees-to-plead-guilty-to/article_b1240a0f-227a-5e9a-84b5-2d5c6edb164b.html

    http://www.koco.com/article/ex-state-sen-ralph-shortey-to-plead-guilty-to-child-sex-trafficking-charge-lawyer-says/13801860

  6. And to remind you all of the women or teens of all ages that Trump has either attacked, abused, molested, grabbed, ogled and more, see this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_sexual_misconduct_allegations#Miss_Teen_USA_contestants

    And as to the people ans businesses he abused, cheated, and deceived, see this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_affairs_of_Donald_Trump

    And to tidy up lose ends:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/donald-trump-scandals/474726/

  7. It’s me again. You won’t be sorry in a minute. While I was reading a few more choice things about this guy Shortey from Oklahoma, I came across this piece. The title and the picture right below it drew me to read it. It begins with coverage of Ralph Shortey bragging that he has Trump coming to their Fair and clearly from the words the writer uses, Trump is not a favorite. The fun begins — so read about the people who are chairs of Trump’s Oklahoma Campaign … I think you will be entertained. 🙂 LOL

    https://www.thelostogle.com/2015/09/23/meet-the-people-behind-donald-trumps-fair-visit/

    • It’s Okay, cause it’s OK, which keeps goods company with the other Red States (excepting Hawaii) that choose to be Red and at the bottom. In the New Economy, they stand here:

      “The two states whose economies have lagged the most in making the transition to the New Economy are Mississippi and West Virginia. Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Wyoming, Kentucky, Hawaii, South Dakota and Alabama round out the bottom 10. See page 12,
      http://www2.itif.org/2014-state-new-economy-index.pdf

      In Knowledge jobs take a look at the bottom 10 states on page 13.

      In Workforce Education, take a look at page 16.

      Here’s an interesting stat on Immigration of Knowledge Workers, on page 17.

      Look at the bottom 10 on GLOBALIZATION, on page 21.

      It “appears” that our favorite states did best with salvery and their still having coniptions about losing that edge.

      • That was a challenge so I had to open my chocolate p-nut butter cups to help me think. I learned several things!

        1. I need to get an eye exam and update in my specs.
        2. This data is dated 2014 — when is this info updated?
        3. Globalization (states ranked from 1 to 50): Delaware is ranked 1st in 2010 and maintains that in 2014; TX ranked 2nd in 2010 but dropped to 3rd in 2014; NV ranked 19 in 2010 and rose to 2nd in 2014. What in the world (pun intended) would cause that huge improvement in NV? And btw I see OK ranked 47 in 2010 and dropped to 48 in 2014 but I have no question about that.
        4. I liked the charts on pages 6 thru 10 except for the exceptionally tiny print! It was interesting to see TX ranked at 20 overall; MA ranked #1 and has been since 1999, what makes them so great? 🙂 I see OK at 48 and good old boy Roy Moore in AL ranked 41 – no surprises there!
        5. I learned you are a whole bunch smarter than me! Made me wonder what state is your state? hahaha!
        6. I was also not surprised to learn that TX ranked dead last 50 for ‘Movement towards a clean energy economy’. I think that would fall under the Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry – well that ain’t gonna help!
        7. there’s more but I have run out of chocolates.

        🙂

  8. There’s been no mention of the promise to abolish current corporate tax deductions and loopholes that have reduced most corporate tax to around 20%. Abolishing them was a major justification for the flat 20% rate.

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